Thursday, March 26, 2009

What a day ....

Yesterday
Well yesterday was quite a scary day if you are holding. First anyone who went long off the 800 had to make a big decision yesterday, stop loss out after breaking 800 or stay with it for a wider risk margin. On the flip side if you were short what did you make of that rally at the end there? Did you cover into the close after seeing the increased buying?

I am sticking primarily to small trades at the moment, nothing more then 3-4 hours therefore minimizing risk and give you a bit of extra gains. I would not try to trade this otherwise here.

So lets talk about some of the technicals, we had strong volume yesterday and created a second spinning top. I for one look at yesterday very bullish - why you say? All the volume came in at the last rally that broke back well above the 800, even taking out 808 and closing fairly close to the 817. I was quite wrong on the 795, I had seen this type of setup in the past and really would have expected further drops after a break of 795 regardless of possible 50dma support.

Now this was also a perfect bear trap, first run the stops of the longs, then make the bears think they can scale back in, rally and you have just taken out both. Bulls are now more committed and will assume a wider risk margin going forward, bears will now just say "ok lets wait until we hit major resistance again".

Today
The chances of creating another spinning top are quite slim so expect today to make a bit of a move and close 20 pts away from our most recent close. While we are still overbought, the market got the lower boundary retest out of the way now so it could create new highs from here. I had said that I feel the 820-828 range should represent the upper ranges and it seems I may have been wrong, our next level of course is quite important and will require a lot of work.

There are 2 numbers that could come into play, 839-842 or 846-848. This range represents a major point - some of you may remember my posts related to Elliot Wave (yeah I know I know). There are many non-believers out there in relation to that, regardless thus far we have been able to apply this theory on the long term. If we apply it here and properly recount our waves this range would mark the end of corrective wave 4 (re-read my beginning of march special for wave counts). On the bullish side, if my January wave count is correct this range is a mere first stop for a 3 wave correction bringing us above the 900 range. How it works out remains to be seen but I wanted to re-emphasize to navigate with caution through these waters. Due to our extreme ranges at the moment you really want to make sure you are on the right side.

The only way I can see us trading towards the downside is through fundamentals. If that is to occur we should break yesterdays intraday low to start the retracement we have been talking about. A move towards the downside should give us at least 3 days of continuation so if that is to occur you may have a decent trend to trade (that still requires protection heh).

18 comments:

  1. Thanks for the analysis. Did you see the VIX flatline yesterday? 3:10-3:35pm the VIX was completely flat... check out a 1 or 3-min chart. I've never seen anything like it. What's your take?

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  2. yeah quite odd, I would probably blame it on some data issue. Do not think it would remain this flat on all the action going on there.

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  3. It definitely couldn't have done that without a data problem or some sort of manipulation. It occurred right when we started to rally... maybe the Working Group aka Plunge Protection Team had something to do with it. Also, we had profits drop the most since 1953 and GDP the weakest since 1982... yet we gain yet again. I'm becoming a conspiracy theorist I tell you!

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  4. yeah its quite a difficult market to trade at the moment. I am VERY light, 2-3 contracts type of trades but thats about it. Not going to risk getting beat again here lol

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  5. I'm staying hedged here, waiting for real direction. Short SPX and financials, long RUT. This market is like a crazy little monkey! :D

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  6. This is strange. SP is up but FAZ and SRS are also. Any theory? I think we have topped here. Again gut feelings.

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  7. Energy and financials are lagging today. Big names (C, WFC, BAC, GS, JPM) appear to be rangebound. They were the strongest sector during the rally, so it seems some sector rotation is in order. My gut also says financials are topping here, but you never know.

    Transports are the real big mover today. Small caps, tech, and materials are also showing signs of strength.

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  8. just got back from a meeting. Seems we are unable to break the upper range. We were setup perfectly for a break here now that we got a decent retracement out of the way. Since many of the key sectors are lagging this rally does not have much more room to go on the upside, at least at the moment.

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  9. I agree. Will sell my long position on the RUT if we don't break right here.

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  10. what was up with that jump, looks like breaking out type of action here.

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  11. Wow... this market is just too strong.

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  12. second top was a lot less volume, potential to setup for head/shoulder here so watch the attempt at the top carefully. We have been trading rather light and in very narrow range, unusual considering we have had quite a range yesterday.

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  13. head shoulder now, easy to make a nice day trade here.

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  14. do you mean on the upside or down?

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  15. Down, although the H&S didn't play out... double top instead. I closed my Russell long, 100% short bias here.

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  16. yeah this looks to be like a good spot for the last hour or so. Looking to close out my short on ES around 815 if we get there (thats around 819 on the S&P)

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  17. missed the exit by a point and stop lossed out. This market puzzles me, honestly. 840 range definitly a reality from here - not today but possibly tomorrow.

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