Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The dollar

Well, everything came together perfectly yesterday. While I did not get a chance to get a long position during the bounce I did manage to reach my target off by a few cents to initiate new short positions.

HOWEVER, the dollar did another one of those WTF moves overnight. I got stopped out of my EURUSD though I did re-short at 1.47414 with a tight stop just above the HOD. While the overnight session is trading in a very tight range the breakout on EURUSD above 1.466 range has me quite concerned and may lead us to the 1052-1055 range on SPX, something I am really not prepared for.

We need to reverse below 1036 before 10:45 cash hours, otherwise we may remain above this range until late next week.

Still short via futures, new position in EURUSD, and a bunch of new puts - sweating a little bit though and may have to exit in the morning today.

3:13AM: Just added more to my EURUSD short. Quite a large position this time around with tight stop. European open should lead the way. Either 1052-1055 or finally head lower.

25 comments:

  1. Futures topped out at 1047 - around 1051 SPX. If we remain at those levels by cash hours we should get one last push towards 1055-1057. That should contain the market there. Question remains if we get a sell off from those levels or sideways.

    If we remain above 1040 for the day, well, we may see higher prices before next week.

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  2. All this talk about the dollar stems from one UK report? And officials from all mentioned nations already in denial. Who would you believe? Think this dollar move will reverse itself?

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  3. I think its also related to australia raising rates while we holding steady. Will further weaken the dollar.

    Not sure what is going to happen, this move in the dollar has really thrown us yet again another curveball to figure out direction.

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  4. ok added my last chunk here. Need to reverse lower or we see the 1060+ SPX again.

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  5. well - yet again the market listened and I am sweating with my current shorts. We did reach my targets, however, not seeing any type of strong reversal off those levels. I do not expect another big push up from those levels so we have to see how the rest of the day behaves. If we close above 1052 SPX I will cover A LOT AGAIN.

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  6. i feel ya...line in the sand right now...

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  7. wow just wow ..... bears are getting the shaft again.

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  8. well...that's it...

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  9. yeah not sure what to say here .... total carnage.

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  10. Not sure what to make of this reversal here. Still holding my shorts and feeling at least some breathing room again.

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  11. the market really giving it to me up the A-hole today. Sorry for the rude comment...

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  12. My luck. I was short at ES 1053 and covered at 1048. Let us see what now? Chris, what is your call? New high or new low from here?

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  13. really hard call from here. We have a failed stepping day, BUT we did breach 1057. So the question is now that we reversed back to the open price if this was the retracement to go higher (very likely) or if the failed stepping day will resolve to continuation on the downside (also very likely as stepping days rarely fail, if they do, you will have continuation in opposite direction - in this case down).

    We have two strong signals on either side. Key is the close today. IF we close below the open price of the day ... lets say 2 points. Well that would be as bearish as it gets. If we close above 1052 - very bullish.

    So a few points today separate a bid directional decision.

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  14. Cycle folks are looking for big down starting Fri-MOn-and ew are stil not sure, if we make new high here or not? as i type this, it looks like we are headed up.

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  15. I think no one knows what is going to happen at the moment. If you are bullish you have the advantage of being able to say "well the last 5 months lead to higher ranges ALWAYS".

    But at this point - new high, lower lows. I think its a gamble on either side and unfortunately I am paying the house quite well here. The strategies and confirmations change almost on a daily basis and are EASILY justifiable after the fact - I think whatever tools we are using at the moment will not give us any edge, not even experience counts here as you can see on every other blog.

    And lets be honest, anyone being bullish. There has not been much to buy longer term in the past 6-8 weeks. Yes we had 990 and 1016 now, but I doubt every bull got in at those levels. So both sides are currently pulling their hair trying to figure out what comes next.

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  16. yup...i'm calling it a day. Wasted money today on today's action. I'm staying put until tomorrow.

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  17. it is stuck at 50 sma. not yet able to cross. maybe we close below 1052.

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  18. going to be closing lots of positions again today (yes that means we will drop BIG).

    I rather look back and regret missing the drop then loosing more. I made a big mistake here again and went against my own gut which was waiting for a break of SPX1014 before going in big. I went in big over the last 20 points and it really hurt me here as the direction is not yet decided yet ...

    seems to be the same old story. No more

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  19. I am as close to capitulation again as it gets ...

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  20. covered half ES here. Waiting to cover over 50% of my puts (even some of my long term ones).

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  21. ok - its done. Out of a ton of position. More then half my open positions closed. Quite large losses yet again.

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  22. lol - seems yet again covered at the wrong time. Sorry for all the ranting today - just really tired of this market here.

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