Friday, July 16, 2010

Shakeout in progress

I believe we are currently in progress of a bullish pattern by shaking out weak longs that had entered positions after the 1085 break as well as trapping bears that went short in the 109X range. The internals of the market are not supporting a drop of the size we had seen today. Anyone who follows me on disqus may have read my comments this morning on TTW as liquidity had been removed carefully to create the 10 point drop in 30 minutes. After the drop was done liquidity had been re-added. Another supporting element is the weak negative tick for such a selling event which further supports a drain in liquidity to push the market lower.

As you know me I generally do not talk about "devilish market maker" scenarios but this here seems quite fishy. Get rid of weak longs, trap the bears, break into 110X and make the weak longs rebuy as well as force bears to cover which will ultimately lead the way towards 1130 SPX.

Targets on ES today could be anywhere in the 1062-1066 range as a valid 4th wave to propel the market higher. From a time perspective this looks now much more solid for a proper 4th wave compared to yesterday.

I am also considering re-adding my longs that I had closed last week as we are currently under my exit prices which is great.

12:24PM: this could be it.

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