Friday, July 9, 2010

Too fast - what to do?

I have to admit I am quite surprised at the price action over the last few days - yes we all expected a rally but not like this. Making money in bear markets is fun since you see profits fast while bullish moves take very long to unfold but being patient pays off.

I am not complaining since I am quite long still but I would much rather see a red close today, and even spent more time below 1074 - heck spend a week there and I am happy. The problem with steep low volume advances is the coming retracement - many times those steep almost vertical price moves get retraced very soon and very strong.

We are nearing some key areas of resistance - of course the channel chart, moving averages not only on the daily but also on shorter term time frames (60 min chart has 200ma right here). With the weekend ahead I am actually a bit concerned and may enter another larger trade towards the downside today, nothing crazy but with a delta negative position (meaning P/L goes up as price goes down). Waiting to see what we do towards the close today but this is too fast too soon. We could easily gap down on Monday and bring a lot of selling with it - and if selling is strong and 1058 taken out bulls need to be extremely concerned.

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