Friday, July 30, 2010

Third try on USDJPY

As per twitter I did two more attempts today at USDJPY. The original one from 2 weeks back was closed out with minor gains. Unfortunately today I got caught again by having my stop a tad too close (yeah yeah but currencies I am afraid for a wide stop). After seeing the reversal I jumped right back in (this time with a much larger position) and hopefully this was it. We have some nice bullish divergences on this pair in addition to the bollinger support and of course the big bullish descending wedge. So three signs of a good long trade here and we are getting close to completing the wedge. Either a breakdown lower or of course a breakout of the pattern to move towards higher targets.

Of course this could be a technical bounce due to quite a run down in the past 3 days. We have to determine how this unfolds during the day today. If we can recapture the 86.45 range before noon we should have more room on the upside, If we stop there and are not able to get above it by mid afternoon it may make new lows below 86 and move towards the big 85 (round and middle).

Two more attempts left after this one. I'll be sure to take some partials this time though to try to balance out the stop from today.

9:55AM: talking about swift reversals lol - recaptured the 86.45 range here and hopefully moving higher. This here could be the breakout of the steep 3 day down channel if we can get to 86.9 next.

3:50PM: well it looks like 86.45 is proving to be quite difficult to overcome. I still think this position is good (well of course I am long) but need to see a strong close above 86.45 on Monday with a test at the 87 range at least (and exceeding todays rally high around 86.7).

Have a good weekend all.

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