Going to keep it a bit short. Getting ready to travel back to Miami this week so I will not have as much time to dedicate towards the markets. Will be in the comments though =)
A few key things, the same applies as yesterday. Bottom of the channel keeps on rising day after day leaving the market no choice but to either break the channel to start the correction or rally strong and make a new high beyond the 874.
MACD on the daily has been zero now for 5 days in a row. The longer it stays in that range the stronger the next move will be. If we do get a break on the upside expect my target of 912 to be the top of this run, on the lower end of course the 780 range.
Current bottom of the channel at 842-845 so this will be the turning point. Futures are currently right at this point and have already tested the lower end of the channel.
I had stopped out of some of my shorts during the day yesterday and re-attempted a position, also added some short at the close as well. Not as good of a price as I had held before but still a decent average considering we did not see a breakout yesterday. While it violated my numbers I had no choice but to exit just to realize it was not the up move I expected.
In case you missed the short entry here, do not chase it. While I do not think we will see the 857 again we do have a chance at the 850 to <857 range. A break of 857 would put the probability of short term downside moves to almost zero so be careful on either side of the trade today.
ReplyDeleteboth long and short at the moment. Waiting for the market to give me signs at the 857. Will exit all longs at 857 and will exit stop out of short at 862. Otherwise longs will stop out at open price.
ReplyDeleteout of longs now. Waiting to see what happens.
ReplyDeletegood call. stopped short of 862. qat what level would you go long, if you thought it could go to 900 plus?
ReplyDeletestill in the short, missed stop by like 10 cents. Considering closing out at the 857 level now. However we have divergence yet again, down volume A LOT higher then up volume today. More then usual.
ReplyDeleteAs you know I do not like playing the long side unless its a hedge or a <10 point day trade. A break of the 875 will bring a lot of momentum due to stop running and new cash coming in.
We are at day 6 now with MACD of 0 (with long previous drop in divergence). Every time this has happened in the past 2 years we have gone down quite substantially. Can this time be different? Possibly but I am not going to put my hand in the fire to be an innovator here. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck. No reason to believe otherwise here.
and congrats on first comment =) Always welcome new readers and opinions.
ReplyDelete"If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck."...LOL...funny, love it :)
ReplyDeletelowering bullish wedge forming here. Could be setting up for another rally to run my stop here. Fairly high probability.
ReplyDeleteChrsi, I just saw 20ema cross upward through 50 ema and that has always provided moemntum of 2 to 3% on a five minite charts. any thoughts on that? it looks like going up.
ReplyDeleteI tought I share this with you from other blog (paid)whatever it means. But it looks like we will get good short entry soon.
ReplyDeleteInstitutions were in Accumulation with their Buy/Sell SPREAD decreasing. Buying decreased, with selling increasing slightly. Institutions are still in accumulation ... this is still not a condition to short against. If both Buying and Selling go down (at the same time) like the December 2008 to early January 2009 period, you could see the market struggle up higher. Last July and August, they both went down together but the market went sideways ... not up. The key here is what the strength bias was while this was occurring. In both the above cases, the bias was positive, and that bias is positive now but growing weaker. Note the resistance line on the Institutional Selling ... it is now slightly above it, but still below its short term resistance. If it moves higher, we could see the trend change to increased selling.
SPX was stopped from HOD 861.76. Good news or bears?
ReplyDeletenew post with pic of what I am doing =)
ReplyDelete