Thursday, April 2, 2009

Wrong yet again ...

Well it seems I was wrong yet again. For the past week I have kept on referring to our retracement into the mid 700's and it never occured. Every attempt to bring us closer to this level has been bought by the bulls and we have seen the same occur yesterday. While prices held up to my targets on the upper ranges we were not able to create any type of setup for a move towards the downside.

Well going to be very interesting - and in my opinion today is for all of us to watch and see where it takes us. Remember my favorite quote "better being out of the markets wishing you were in, then in the markets wishing you were out". Lets not try to gamble today and try to catch a falling knife. Futures we are already on the upper most ranges (824-828) so we have to see how those hold up. World markets are rallying and G20 and M2M is affecting us pretty much all day today - there won't be much technicals today so be careful.

Remember my numbers from before on the upper rages - 839-842 and 846-848. If we reach those today I will of course post comments and give better guidance on what to do. My rule unless otherwise, stay out, do not try to catch this.

I had mentioned this in the comments yesterday. But as you can see the past week I have held back on making mid and long term forecasts as it is quite difficult at the moment to predict those scenarios and quite frankly, they change almost daily. It would take way too much time to try to determine each scenario and outline every confirmation sign due to the ever changing enviornment. The only thing I wanted to add is the 3 trends that are currently all different - short term is sideways, mid term is a bit towards the bullish side and long term is bearish. So until I see some type of confirmation on a proper trend I will keep it light - may do an update on the weekend to show the bigger picture for each of those trends.


  1. difficult call from here. It has a bit more hesitation here but still managing to get higher. 839 of course almost there, not sure if I would dare shorting it there though. It could extend itself all the way towards 851-852 here and close near the highs. Need to watch it a bit more to try to figure out what is going to happen.

    Watch 10:50-10:55 for a potential change (it could be the top there or bottom of the day).

  2. its looking very toppy here at 10:51 @ 836.60. This could be the high for the day but I am not quite sure yet, have a small short here but tight stop 1 pt after the high. Got a great entry so its an easy trade to walk away from. Lets see what develops in the next 15 minutes here.

  3. hi, on cnbc Art Cashin told 10min ago that a major resistance is around 850 S&P. Do you expect a break of this level tomorrow or a retracement towards 820 or below?
    thanks, daniel

  4. this level should not be broken on first attempt. It will take at least a test (probably 2) before we get there. I do believe that at this point we have found a top here and will retrace down at least towards the 828 level. We have to closly watch the action from this top here to see if it has further room to go - at this point I feel the top for the day is in. Depending on how we sell off we can make conclusions for the next few days.

    There are quite a few that have stated a new up leg has started, I do not believe this to be the case as the key range is the 848 which has yet to see a real test.

  5. watching the important 848

  6. Boo, change to mark-to-market. :-(
    I'm not looking forward to more Enrons.

  7. do you think this the top or could go 850-860 range now?

  8. difficult to say, RIMM had great earnings after hours so that will definitly be pushing the markets a LOT higher. Of course also unemployment data tomorrow.

    I will post more updates tomorrow =)