Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Sentiment Change?

Ok wanted to post some updates right away due to what happened today. Please re-read my saturday post as all the info here refer to this as a base.

Special: Just some Review

60 min Channel

As you can see the channel we have identified on Saturday held perfectly within the trend lines I had put in. Break the outer channel and get in the middle, here normally you have a chance of either reversing back to previous range or go into the lower range. FYI for trend channels I always add a small middle channel for this specific reason.

You can see we gapped down today and reattempted the narrow middle channel here just to fall over. While we had a rally we were not able to get back to the previous top, not only did we stop before we reached it we also sold off hard towards the low of the day. That is quite a sign, big GAP down to break off the spinners, reattempt and fail on the upside, fail to rally towards the days peak and sell off into the close.

I had mentioned in the comments that we are seeing a few changes and rallies do not show the same strength anymore as before. While we are not seeing committment from the bears to sell stronger we are not getting the strong buying anymore. Think about this - this week we are seeing a bit less outside influences and what happens? We sell off? Of course we are still in a valid mid term uptrend here so I am just supporting a bearish case =)

SPY Daily
Ok we broke off from the three spinners up top but did not do so with strong commitment. While this is a good signal its not perfect as we reattempted the last spinners lower shadow. Would have been nice to have a total seperation there but this is still a great sign.

Also, you could pick up a book on candlesticks and see pattern after pattern in the last 10 trade days. It really is quite amazing seeing this first hand. Not only can we see it but also experience what the sentiment is during this process, something a book can never explain. We really have quite a luxuary here to get to participate first hand.

So in summary, the break off the spinning tops, while a bit weak it still is a sign. Cross over on slow stochastics, MACD divergence almost ready to give us a sell signal in the next day. However, we have one more piece of information ...

S&P Daily
I will let the picture speak for itself. You remember my light blue and yellow dots from saturday? However we also have the blue and yellow line to deal with here so tomorrow and thursday will be our final decision ...

Exciting times I tell you ....

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