I had made another post over the weekend. I said I was going to add some MACD examples and explanations but I ran out of time.
I had spent quite a bit of time yesterday going over all of my time targets. For you long term readers you may remember my update in the beginning of March where I was hinting at accelerations occurring much more rapidly then I anticipated. Ever since mid February all of my time windows that should have manifested are happening faster on every swing. I have to be honest I am not quite sure what to make of this and can only come to one conclusion - we either stop the acceleration here by trading a bit sideways within a 60 point range in the next 4-6 weeks or we will be seeing a drastic october 2008 like event. I had ruled this out last year after my crash analysis and stated that we should continue downwards in a much more controlled fashion with a hint of fear only. We will have to see what is going to occur but if this acceleration continues my 480 target will be moved up by at least 50%.
Last year july I was getting other type of signs that made me very cautious in any long positions and as you know I went 100% cash in August of last year as I was afraid of what may be lurking there beneath. I am now at this same point again, this time though for different reasons. I have advised some of my friends and collegues that are invested into 401Ks this weekend to protect positions and minimize long exposure. Of course we have quite a bit of upside potential - many are saying we are topping out and there are very valid reasons for it. Just take a look at this indecision we have been having the past 2 weeks. If we are to make a break to the upside we have to get ourselves into proper breakout range and at least give the 912 a test this month. If that is too occur we should see a retracement back towards 848 which gives everyone a great way to get back into the market with a final target price of 1014. So from a risk perspective minimizing exposure here is a great move. The chances of an upturn occurring are quite small but March has thought me a great lesson to try my best to remain objective. I had lost my touch and became too bearish which unfortunately cost me quite a bit.
Ok enough of this, lets focus on this week. Volume should be light and we should be trading a bit more on the upside. I had mentioned that we should be seeing a change of trend today. Time wise the most likely scenario is the 12:30-12:45 window for a potential top. If this will not occur at that time the second scenario is the 2:45 range.
Targets on the upper side are the 870-878 range, while I do not believe those will be hit there is potential. Of course reaching those now, this week, I cannot tell you enough how much of a present this would be for the bears because quite frankly we should not see this range, if we do, we should be done on the upside and start the major leg down.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteWhen you said "if this acceleration continues my 480 target will be moved up by at least 50%", do you mean 50% above 480 (720?) or do you mean time-wise, we'll get to 480 faster by 50%?
Thanks!
time wise yes. Based on my current cycles it could be occurring as early as June, possibly end of May.
ReplyDeleteChaugner great analysis. thanks for your effort. How does it like for short side?
ReplyDelete828 important now. I feel we will break it hard. GAP fill failed before 50%. Of course all this could just be a simple retracement to the bottom of the channel so be careful with strong buy volume stepping in.
ReplyDeleteSamamehta, I went short about 5 min after the top there. I was stuck in a meeting and got back too late heh.
ReplyDeleteHowever, its not an entry that I like, because I really thought we would rally first to give a proper retest to the upper range before heading down. Need to manage this position a lot closer now.
thanks. I agree. I got in too on short side. SRS,FAZ AND GS PUT. LET US SEE. I SEE SOME SEELING PRESURE NOW. bu too early to tell
ReplyDeleteit broke 828 by a tad 727.62. it should confrim soon on an hourly basis.
ReplyDeleteany idea on how low this leg will go before reversing?
ReplyDeletebullish lowering wedge, decreasing in price, getting narrower and dropping in volume. Be careful on the short side.
ReplyDeleteI closed some of my shorts in the last 30 min, scaled out slowly waiting to re-enter when its a bit safer.
ReplyDeleteFYI, look at the low of the day. 12:39. My call for most likly change of trend was 12:30-12:45 though I expected it to be a top.
ReplyDeleteWhile it was not the top it was an important turning point, I had closed out more shorts after I realized that it did change trends there. I think we may have a chance to get back to 848 from here. Need to watch the 828 and 832 targets carefully.
thanks for the update...there seems to be a lot of indecision and nerves around that range (828-832)...i hope we can breakout on the upside with some strength.
ReplyDeleteit broke out of ascending wedge? what does it mean? Chaugner
ReplyDeleteif you draw trendlines from the 12:39 low you can see it maintained a normal trade channel. While there was a minor breakout on the close it quickly came back in to close on the upper ranges.
ReplyDeleteLook at the daily of SPY yet again. Another indecision candle stick there. As you remember from my saturday post. They have been all over in the past 2 weeks. Another one today.
We should mark this down and in 4-6 weeks talk about it again. I am pretty confident with what is about to happen so we shall have to see. But the signs are getting more and more obvious of a big move to come.
I assume you mean on the down side. for last 2-3 hours buy/sell has been neutral. no net pressure. and spx moved high up. tomorrow another gap down? Or gap up and then big down?
ReplyDelete