Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Prices down ... no volume

As we had anticipated the real non financial economic indicators are not going to be as [cough] amazing as the banks results. Retail data was horrible, Intel earnings after the close. Just more signs that our economy has not improved quite as much as many believe.

Regardless of the fundamentals the market never went into fear selling mode and held up fairly well. Volume was light, we filled the gap, reattempted the 850 range and closed above the 840 range, barely. If you look back at our 60 min trade channel, take a look at the center trend lines, perfect support there and one of my reasons for a short term long play I did yesterday.

I created a post yesterday regarding my twitter updates. I am still working on trying to find a way that works best, comments versus twitter.

Before going into today, I wanted to re-emphasize something. We have the 60 min trade channel and the wedge formation. While it may be obvious to expect bounces we have to be careful. Just when the market is within a strong pattern, do not expect the pattern to continue very long term. I am looking for a change of our overall pattern that should start this week, meaning that the coming moves in the market will be following different mechanics.

I think we will have one last wave left. Take a look at the daily, We have not had 3 down days in a row ever since the rally started. Day number one yesterday, will it be day number 2 today or will we find support?

Trade wise, futures are down slightly but still close enough to the close price yesterday. One number I am looking at today for another short term up trade. 836-838. A break here and we will be seeing 826-828 yet again. Watch volume carefully today, we had our down day yesterday so will be interesting to see if volume picks up a bit more.

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