Thursday, December 3, 2009

Another chart of interest

Take a look at this peak advance ratio. We are decreasing our angle on every consecutive peak we are making on SPX. Even more interesting that we had been consolidating in a very narrow range for almost an entire month now and every attempt to move the market higher is being faced with selling pressures - but not enough selling pressures to move the market lower.

We are coiling and continue to stay very narrow in our daily ranges, the challenge now is finding new buyers that will commit to the markets at those price levels, buyers that need to have a very long term focus.

We have 2 ranges ES wise. 1115 now as our peak (a break here and we have a move into the 113X range) or the 1082. IF we are to get back to 1082 I think we will see a break lower and finally some real profit taking (not just protective put buying on open positions).

EDIT: one would consider that after such an extensive coiling pattern the following breakout will be very strong - however, a breakout on the upside will face the same challenges its facing now, while a breakdown lower will actually work "easier". its also possible as always that the first move out of the coil could be the false move to reverse back even stronger. its a difficult call for sure - one that no one seems to know the answer for. I'd give it 51 down and 49 up (which is quite incredible that I am assuming a 49% chance to move higher from here)

But looking at the above chart - not looking all that bullish - in addition to that SPX is racing against the march trendlines and eventually the market is going to have to give this trend line up. This can be done through side ways price action as we may be seeing here or through larger retracements.


  1. woah should have kept that SRS position instead lol

  2. so yeah - I honestly have no clue where the market is going to head for december. Seasonality says up, wanting to lock in profits for the year after a bad 24 month period says down.