Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Open at key trendline

If we remain at current levels we will open at a key trendline. Now we are down 1% which should give us a stepping day again, however, in the past down gaps at least have been filled partially while up gaps run away.

I am not sure what to make of the price action quite yet. We have seen big moves in the dollar but SPX is not following - it does not mean dollar and SPX always have to work together but considering that we have seen great strength on the dollar we are actually up on the market all things considering. EURUSD is yet again at a key trendline as well with decent support but we did break the 1.48 range so this may qualify as a real break.

If we do not see higher prices within the first 15 minutes we can be sure that we will see the 1084 range possibly today. For me to engage in any longer term bigger trades we need to see a break of this range and a retest on a separate day. So for today, I am actually looking for a long position in the morning hours (long EURUSD at the moment) and potentially a short on retest of 1110 ES.

Lets wait it out and see how it develops. Remember my charts from yesterday, we do have a bit of support on the lower side but in my opinion its quite weak as the price action above this support is not what I would consider "stable".

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