Monday, December 7, 2009

Nothing much changed

Well we are still in the same old range and nothing much has changed so it seems. In my post this morning I was talking about the market burning off overbought conditions. I wanted to show you one of my daily desktops that I check at the end of the day. I mean really ... how much more screwed up can an index look? I am used to seeing those type of almost irrational moves on individual stocks but never on a broad index.

Left side = dow daily, you can see we have good support anywhere from 10200-10300 but the price action above this range is so weak - well it will take a splice through that support and its done. Looking at the MACD though, it did make a higher high so thats rather bullish on the DOW. We also switched back into negative divergence on the MACD (same on the others) while being a mere 10 points away from the 12+ month high - incredible.

Now the center one, SPX, no new high on MACD, and that bolling keeps squeezing every day that goes by. I think this must be the narrowest range I have ever seen on a bollinger on an index. 1116-1085 - another incredible one.

Now last, spy on the right hand side. Mini wedge in the big march 09 wedge. Would not be surprised to see a breakout of the small wedge to retest the march 09 wedge around the 1140-1150. Interesting to note on the spy chart is the volume - again dropping volume and big volume spikes once we approach the edge of our ranges - either on the top or bottom.

Enough for tonight. Not much going on - quite upset at being stopped out on my GBPJPY short from Friday - stopped out right at the top. I have to admit - this one seems to happen quite frequent on FX trading ... (though I did nail my EURUSD long from friday to sunday night at respective low and high so I guess its a wash).