Thursday, May 14, 2009

Added to positions

Added another 25% to positions. Will add rest at 902.


  1. You are right Chris, both bulls and bears are scared at this time. I will just take a vacation and see my account healthy in next one month.

    I did not flinch when spx moved from 1500 to 666. Mostly due to being in cash position though.

    I do not it is worth to watch every 15 points up and down.

  2. don't take a vacation now. Go home, put a 20% stop loss on all your positions, then open it back up in about 3 months.

    Trust me =)

  3. In a way, i am glad that the spx did not tank today. I bought short mutual funds for the IRA account I got in at the close. They won't allow us to buy ETFs or stocks on 401K account.


  5. iNTERESTING post from a blog FYI: will add short if we see 906 or more tomorrow.
    My dilemna is EWI has a very bearish count and the bottom today was a second wave one down (I have my degree marked different thean they do) in a series of ones and two's. This implies that the retrace up cannot violate 915 SPX to the upside. This also implies that after this retrace is over (likely tomorrow sometime), the market is due for the "heart" of a wave three move lower which should take the market down in a very bearish down day. That would likely be perhaps part of Friday with most of the follow through on Monday and maybe Tuesday.

    Today's actions were kind of weak if this is to be a new move back up toward the 920's or even a new peak in some kind of B wave flat as I described last night.

    So those are the 2 counts: 1) The more bearish is a retrace up to no more than 914 SPX. Indeed if a zig zag up from today's low is playing out your looking at about 906 tops (c= a = 906). Then a hard turn back down. This bearish count will eventually power through 875 to a lower SPX number in the coming week(s).

    2) The less bearish count is a flat is playing out from the 930 peak and the market heads back to the 920's at the very least on a B wave and perhaps a new peak or even the 200 DMA. Depends on what kind of flat evolves. The problem with this scenario is today looked weak and looked like more like a dead cat bounce rather than a true turn back up. But perhaps I need to give the market one more day to prove itself one way or the other.

    But...being a permabear, I favor EWI's count at the moment. They are indeed the experts and I myself was only saying a week or so ago this market is heading DOWN.

    So bottom line: I'll let the market tell me tomorrow. A weak move to 906 (particularly a gap up)would be a golden entrance to short. Anything over 910 and my bullish flat scenario is in play. Of course a gap down and bloody opening supports the bearish count.

  6. FYI; Robert Prechter:

    Stocks still face deflationary collapse: Prechter
    Thu May 14, 2009 6:50pm BST
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that U.S. equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites.

    Oil and U.S. Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets, while corporate bond prices will plunge precipitously by next year as broad economy, banking system and company earnings sustain more damage from a financial crisis that's akin to the Great Depression, he said.

    The U.S. S&P 500 stock index's .SPX rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters.

    "It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932," he told Reuters in a wide ranging interview. "It's a very rare event," he added.

    "I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety," he said.