Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Talking about divergence

"No Recovery Yet, Home Prices Post Another Record Drop"

SRS - UltraShort Real Estate ProShrs -10.3%


  1. "GM Bondholders Reject Plan, Setting Stage for Bankruptcy

    General Motors has failed to persuade enough bondholders to accept a debt-for-equity swap, setting the stage for the largest-ever U.S. industrial bankruptcy."

    Rally time !!!!!

  2. we have sen the HOD. now all shorts.

  3. good call. I had just re-added most of my shorts as well.

  4. ascending wedge on ES. breakdon will be violent. tomorrow though new high may be in the cards.

  5. Chris/Samamehta, thanks for your comments.

    i think weve just broken from the wedge you mentioned. how low to you see this going before any bounce?

  6. I agree with Chris, monthly close of 871 is in the cards. holding my shorts and would go long around 855-860 like chris has envisioned.

  7. What is your take here Chris? hold shorts?

  8. samalamadingdongMay 26, 2009 at 4:01 PM

    you guys are going to lose your shorts if you keep shorting.

  9. yeah out of shorts at the moment. The bears had their chance here to break the important 880 after many attempts and failed.

    As mentioned bear market rally tops (yes we are still in a bear market rally) usually do not get retested. So a break of 920 tomorrow has very high probabilities of a new high. How high I am not quite sure but I would say 945 is achievable.

    Will wait until then and stay 100% cash unless the market shows me something else.

    samalamadingdong, I still believe strongly that we will not break the 980 range here. If we do, it will just add another big "bad call" to my list of the past 2-3 months =)

  10. I say 915 at the max. then down around 11 am. if it goes above 915-920 chris you are right a new high and touch 200 dma at 935 and then down at least to 880 or more.

  11. yes tomorrow will be important. And it really is going to be quite an easy trade to be honest. 920 is the line in the sand.

    Its difficult being a bear now, as much as being a bull. We have had consecutive tests on the 880 range but fail to bring in new buyers and are making marginal lower highs here. Even with such strong price moves today volume was a bit on the lower side. If I were a bull I would be concerned.

    IF we do break 920 I think we are in for another 25 points on the upside after that and bulls can take a bit of a breather here. If we fail 920 tomorrow, there is a great chance to reattempt the 880 (or a possible battle at the 900 range). At this point we are in a no-direction zone. Some of you may remember back in Feb when we were at the 800 - of course different conditions but we kept on trading back and forth in that range.

    We have removed A LOT of the overbought indicators giving the bulls a free card to move higher from here, even my MACD is negative that will play very well into the long side here.

  12. Chris,

    Thanks for the detailed analysis, really helpful to me.
    Good luck for tomorrow.