Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Long weekend ... no charts

Well, I promised myself to post some updates and yet again I felt personal time was a bit more important. Apologies yet again.

Currently markets are trading around the same price point as we closed on Friday last week. We have had some slight tests of the lower 879 ranges yesterday due to the Asian market craziness and this morning.

It seems the bears are not able to break this market down below the key range of 870-880. We have now had 2 consecutive tests at this range during regular market hours and 2 tests in the past 2 days during futures action. Unless the bears can take the bull by the horns we should be seeing more upside. During our very light volume trading on Friday we did give the 895-896 a test just to fail towards the close. Based on the action we are seeing we should be giving this range a test today and make an important decision here for the remainder of the week.

As I had mentioned in the comments previously I am looking for a close this month around the 871 range. The monthly close should fall 10 points above/below and will give an important sign of things to come. Looking at my long term forecasts from beginning of March we are nearing my time points for this rally to make a move towards the downside. While I had a major miss on the price components we are still moving correctly in terms of time components. A monthly close at this key 871 range will set up the market for a fairly wide range towards the downside with a minimum target of 780 for the month of June. However, lets not get ahead of ourselves here and let the market show us the direction for the coming month.

Support and Resistance
902-904 = a key test at the 900 range for resistance. As you remember the market likes round numbers so a break of the 896 should lead us back towards the 902 range. Watch for the market to potentially stall at the 898

895-896 = the first target I am looking for on the resistance side as it represents the high of Friday

869-871 = a number you have seen me refer to a few times. If the market is able to break the key 880 range we should see a small bounce of this range. Hitting this number will most likely lead us to the next level of support.

856 = this number starts a cluster of close support ranges so a break here on first try is very unlikely. This support would give a great long play towards the 870-880 range. So if you want to be short, do not chase it as you will get your chance.

I will most likely revert back to my old blog format that gives the previous day review, daily review, support and resistance numbers as well as a trade plan. Some of my older readers may remember this format and I have to admit, not sure what changed here. I guess too many random thoughts and comments I felt I wanted to share.


  1. Wow explosion from the consumer confidence report. How high do you think this will go?

  2. I am being 100% analytic now in that response. "I have no freaking clue" - how about that? lol

    Just moved some more capital around between accounts - getting ready to do whatever it is I have been trying for the past few weeks. Got to keep myself buys with something right? I still "refuse" to go long unless its a hedge or a day trade. I missed the biggest rally - I can accept that but I also accept that upside here is very limited.

  3. I saw neg. divg. around 905. should go down by 3 PM. web site still acting poor.

  4. Noobie question:

    Where does everyone go to see negative divergence? In tradestation?

    I've got Scottrade, can I see it there?

  5. I think its more meant as a comparison to other sectors and overall indicators. MACD, momentum, volume, etc.

    However, this has been one gigantic divergence since early march. I could show you MANY indicators that are screaming SELL SELL SELL. Yet here we are. During times like this, when you see the market not working well with indicators you have no choice but to go back to basics.

    Price, Time, Volume - thats the only thing that works and even volume is not the best indicator at the moment and should only be used as a confirmation when trading the downside - even non-confirmation on volume to the upside still seems to be showing prices going higher.

    As much as I "enjoy" trading (which is a bad thing to be saying). I am staying very light here and may let the market run away from me the next month or so. Market will be there today, tomorrow, next week, next month.

    As per slope of hope "cash is a position too" (waiting for incoming slap in the face)

  6. Thanks for the explanation, Chris.