Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Short Post Today

No real updates. Yesterday was distribution, which is quite bullish. BAC needs more capital, we already knew that, private sector job reports pushing futures up.

My painful start for the day is ...

05/06/09 08:13:59 AM Sell ESM09 897.75
05/06/09 08:15:43 AM Buy ESM09 904.75 (stopped out within less then 2 minutes with a sizable loss)

Lets see if we can take out 912 today and go all the way to 922.


  1. Chris,
    I feel your pain. I've been in and out of SDS as well and have a small chunk averaged at around $65. But I'm hanging in there to add more.

    What are your thoughts about tomorrow's results of the stress test? I can't figure out why BAC shot up today while we all know BAC and Citi are in bad shape.

  2. Stress test results seem to be priced in (I hate using that term because quite frankly I do not believe in it lol).

    And yes, the market is not making much sense here. I am still in SDS, and I too am waiting to add more. But its getting quite frustrating.

    As I had said this has been the worst market cycle for me yet in terms of drawdown. I calculated out what my break even price will have to be on SDS - 75 (or around 820 on the S&P). Thats quite painful. Thats 30% loss of the total move from 666 to 915.

    I will add another post this weekend as a self criticism type of post to put up lessons learned.

    Either way, nothing has changed my long term views, thats positive, but I cannot believe I have missed the biggest rally we have had here when all the signs were in front of me (hindsight is 20/20 yeah but it was an easy trade after we broke 800, a trade I did not take).

  3. also remember gaps, low of the day set on first retracement. I do not think thats the case today but I do believe we may see another test on the top of the day. Possibly with a small breach into the 918 range.

  4. Nevermind... BAC needs $34 Bil in new capital. Should this signify all banks passing the stress test?

  5. here I am with my finger on the cover button after a mere 6 points gain. What has this market done to me? =)

  6. bullish lowering wedge yet again. Staying short for now.