Friday, May 15, 2009

No update today

Sorry running late again and too much work today ...

Will post intraday updates in comments.

35 comments:

  1. samalamadingdongMay 15, 2009 at 11:36 AM

    where you at chaugsy?

    ReplyDelete
  2. samalamadingdongMay 15, 2009 at 11:41 AM

    samamehta you wake up yet?

    ReplyDelete
  3. jUST watching the tape and smiling. it is about time.

    Chris, do you take profit at 875? or ride it down to 850. Pr take partial profit lke you did with 50% SDS.

    It looks bearish. it will go down because we are still scared of bulls. I have to remind myself that even if it goes to 930-950 I will double down. Upside has to be limited.

    ReplyDelete
  4. not quite sure yet. Do not think we will get this low today. Option expiration normally does not exceed 15 points in range.

    Either way, I will make up my mind once we get there based on what the market is showing me. Will either hedge via futures or do the same micromanagement.

    Now that I am in a position that goes into my direction I try not to exceed 2 management trades per week. Anything more then that you normally end up worse then you started.

    Still got some money left over that I have not yet added to the full positions. Time is on our side so just got to have patience.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks chris. Just FYI a blurb from bulls site:

    The 60-minute 3-month S&P 500 is back testing the break down through the lower rising channel. This back test is likely to be short lived and the market will return its move down. However, Friday is options expiration day, so we could get more volatility than normal.
    The RSI dropped below 50 indicating a new down trend. The MACD turned up with the rally. It showed negative divergence, a good sell sign. The MACD histogram has continued to show negative divergence as well, another sign of a move down. The Slow Stochastic turned back down through 80 giving another sell sign.
    The 60-minute chart is indicating the market this rally is a good opportunity to add to any short positions. For investors that are more conservative monitor the back test. If it breaks back down then add more down side protection using protective puts and the short ETFs.
    The strategy going forward remains as before. Be prepared to add further down side protection buying protective puts and the short ETFs (SH, SDS, QID, etc.) on any confirmation of a new down trend. My expectation is we will see either further sideways consolidation or a move down in the near future. However, need to accept what the market gives us and not try to create something before it is there.

    ReplyDelete
  6. bullish lowering wedge here again. Watch out if you short.

    ReplyDelete
  7. would you take a profit or wait it out.

    ReplyDelete
  8. waiting it out of course. Went long for small amount via futures at 881 with stop at break even. Just in case =)

    All blogs and everyone in the world is turning bearish now - "be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".

    While I am fully onboard with the bearish views I rather protect myself instead of following a view that may not happen.

    ReplyDelete
  9. many may be getting ahead of themselves here - trend is unfortunately still up. In the big picture of things - my current feel is that we have 2 of 3 confirmations that the downtrend will now resume.

    Staying cautious ....

    ReplyDelete
  10. I would honestly be a bit surprised if this has been the rebound here for the bulls. If it is, well I am more confident of the 480 range again instead of the 716 I had mentioned last week.

    break of 912 last week scared me ... and it still scares me.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I agree. By monday or Tuesday we should get an IT trend confirmation. I follow this stock market timing blog and they list institutional activities. the accumulation is decreasing but the distribution has not yet overcome. they expect very soon. That should be solid signal.

    http://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm

    ReplyDelete
  12. market really should bounce here ... if not well, we may have more downside today but I would anticipate another test on the upper trendline which means at least 6-8 points from here.

    ReplyDelete
  13. That would be 875 -876 we could get a 15 to 20 points bounce you think, if we do not get one now?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Many are expecting a bounce there ... my range is a bit lower. 869 to be exact =)

    We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I will post some updates over the weekend as to what I am expecting in terms of moves.

    ReplyDelete
  16. waiting for new LOD. we should then go to 875

    ReplyDelete
  17. FROM A BLOG:
    http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

    Just a quick, laser-focused intraday update to state that the 882.49 level ($88.41 in the SPY) MUST be held as support for the bulls for any hope of higher prices in the short term. A failure here, particularly a close beneath this level should we get a push to new lows intraday, would be devastating and would set-up an almost certain test of the 50 day EMA just beneath 860.

    ReplyDelete
  18. yeah ... I have to admit its been an amazing week for me. Quite happy at my performance here this week and made up a lot of ground from the past 2.5 months.

    ReplyDelete
  19. gloating a bit as well at the 898 call yesterday ;p perfect timing for all of us to add shorts at good prices so it seems.

    ReplyDelete
  20. cHRIS? YOUR CRYSTAL BALL PLEASE.

    ReplyDelete
  21. no idea what will happen here in the next hour. Anything possible ... considering we breached the 880 range it is actually possible to hit mu 869 target ... VERY unlikely but can happen (wishful thinking for the bears).

    On the other hand get ready for major short covering at 3:25PM ... could easily add 10-15 points back.

    Yeah I know, "it could go up or down" - not much analysis just some random thoughts of possibilities.

    ReplyDelete
  22. i BOUGHT spy 88 CALL AT 0.5 FOR THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. STOP LOSS FEW PENNYS

    ReplyDelete
  23. I trade on the TSE and it seems to have frozen or closed?? Do you guys know what's going on?

    ReplyDelete
  24. well look at that short covering there at 3:25 PM ... just on time =)

    ReplyDelete
  25. a bit mad at myself for not hedging long via futures here.

    ReplyDelete
  26. about 10-15 points you think/
    My spy are doing OK. thanks chris.

    ReplyDelete
  27. samalamadingdongMay 15, 2009 at 3:32 PM

    from ice cold to on fire... : )

    ReplyDelete
  28. I wish my "lucky guesses" would work like this all the time =)

    ReplyDelete
  29. long via futures here and keeping it over weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  30. you made the right choice it seems.

    here is call for monday

    The system will switch to long for Monday.

    Will go to 1.5x.

    ReplyDelete
  31. What is you upside target? 50% of 930-880? that would be 25 points i.e. 905?

    ReplyDelete
  32. will figure it out over the weekend. We have 2 scenarios primary scenarios - 2 potential up days (1 up one slight up with distribution) to 902 before taking out 869. I favor this one as it will create the outer edge of a potential new trend channel down (with the assumption that current trendline off the peaks is the center line - pics will speak a thousand words so wait for updates over weekend)

    Next scenario is a continuation of selling towards 836-855 (wide range I know). Here it becomes more difficult to predict the channel and leaves too much room for too many patterns and scenarios. While my bank account would favor this one - its not a good long term scenario to manage existing positions - will be hit and miss to exit/re-enter.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Thanks. I just nibbled on spx june call with tight stop. I do not mind stops being taken out if it goes down.

    here is similar analysis from another blog.
    http://uidezine.blogspot.com/

    Everytime the market touched the bottom of the channel it has turned quickly and bounce like a rocket. Now I think the "Buy the dip" strategy will fail. Monday opening will be key for this market. A gap down on monday below that line would put the market definitely out of the channel and would trigger some serious selloff IMO.
    They better hold the double bottom. If not, Bulls will be in serious trouble.

    ReplyDelete