Monday, June 1, 2009

Just another chart


Not commenting on bearish/bullish here. Just giving another perspective.

- Bollingers now breached for the second time at 2.5 deviations (very bullish and sign for me that this is not a bear market rally).
- MACD at zero again after dropping below zero during consolidation (bullish)
- MACD failing to make new high (would be bearish under normal circumstances but bullish here due to 200dma break)

Excited to see what volume will be looking like at the end of the day. Either way. If this holds above 918 by Wednesday - I may be a buyer.

10 comments:

  1. samalamadingdongJune 1, 2009 at 10:40 AM

    if you're buying i'm selling! : )
    samamehta - how's that 50 point drop looking?? talk about a contra-indicator.

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  2. Chris,
    Realistically, what are the signs that will change you into a bull and believe that we're on our way out of this recession?
    Thanks,

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  3. nah not buying here of course =). 3 up days, would be nuts to go long at this level but I am going to reshuffle my watch lists tonight to take a careful look at everyone.

    And honestly, we get it, we were wrong, no need to keep on bringing it up and throw salt into the wounds. I am pretty easy going about this so its ok =) however others may have lost some serious money during this rally. If you were in their shoes you would not welcome constant reminders of how wrong they were.

    Either way ... just watching here and not making any decisions this week. May sit it out all together. If this is a new range - there is enough time for all of us to make a move.

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  4. dingdong, the short answer is - My views on this economy will not change for a while. I would even dare to say we are not even half way into this crisis here. I keep on referring to this half way point of a crisis that will bring an extended time frame of bullish moves. There is quite a chance that this is the move we are seeing here.

    However, one important aspect is being able to trade this, something I have failed at miserably. Equities going up does not mean we are doing better. Our valuations are no where near reality - yet we keep on going up and as a trader I need to be able to profit from this.

    If I don;t and decide to stay on the side (which is very possible for me here) I have to be concerned about inflationary risks and need to find a way to hedge my cash position due to risks of severe inflation. My views are that commodities (look at gold, oil, etc) are great ways to minimize the risk on cash devaluation.

    Either way. This week will be a discovery week for me to make a decision on how I want to be positioned until September. At this point I have to be honest not quite sure what I will do yet.

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  5. CHris,
    Thanks for that response. I'm a noobie and this is my first economic crisis. I remember the slowdown in 2001, but I didn't have any money in it. I'm losing my bearish sentiment because there's co-workers that brag about how much they've made in the past few months because they're 100% in stocks in their 401K.

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  6. I agree with Chris. too late to panic at this point. I bought more puts to avg down. may get out at minor loss. Samala I agree that I missed the boat but would not chase this one. It is topping out.

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  7. I will try to make a post tonight (I know I said it before heh) but time cycle wise we are coming to an end here. Does not mean we are topping, but this current time cycle may be ending this week or has already ended.

    The only thing I am glad about is that my major time cycles have worked out great - of course price wise I have been wrong twice (top of jan and top of this rally). One right and one wrong does not make a right, I get that.

    However, regardless of where we will be moving, the next cycle has a very high probability of being a 2-3 months move (September time frame). The only concern I have is that the current cycle could have an overthrow of 4 weeks - something that is very unlikely but has to be considered. I will be trying to work out tonight how we can figure out if this is an overthrow or a new cycle starting.

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  8. samalamadingdongJune 1, 2009 at 4:09 PM

    where u at chaugster?

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  9. always watching =) come on ;p

    market is like my second wife ...

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  10. I am thinking 915-920 a good exit level for shorts in the next two days. Then it may shoot higher. would not chase it though. what do you think Chris?

    samala..., you may be right. but we may see 880 or 850 before 1040. what do you think.

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