Thursday, June 25, 2009

Ok new game plan

Today definitely did not play as anticipated. I had entered quite a few shorts yesterday before the announcement with the anticipation of getting a move higher yesterday. While we are getting a move higher today I was very concerned due to the sell off action yesterday and this mad rally here on little news. Additionally the crazy overnight action had me pondering what they are trying to do here.

So looking at it from a bearish EW perspective this is playing out as a wave 2 with a typical 61.80% retracement that plays right into our resistance zone. Additionally a close for the month above 920 (4 more days) would also play into the bearish case from a monthly perspective.

So now its just wait and see what the market does. I had opened quite a few more short positions earlier today but with tight stops - at this point I still have a bit of short exposure but waiting to add the big chunk soon.

The blue triangle represents my risk zone here all the way to 937 levels. This range should hold the market off - however, this is a new range that I did not have considered previously as my upper ranges were bound by 924. As a result I have to rethink position sizing a bit more due to risk management. Will figure out what exactly I will be doing once I place my trades.

Will also update on twitter.

Good luck.


  1. Chris, my read is that we peak at around close time. good short entry. we may see small pullback around 2 - 3 PM then an impressive bounce.

  2. I think we have a bit more upside left here besides today. If we close at the highs today we have a very high probability chance for continuation tomorrow morning. I will wait and see what happens at the close before committing anything else at this point.

    Unfortunately I now have to assume a much wider risk margin then I had originally planned for leaving me with quite a drawdown before I know for sure.