Monday, June 15, 2009

Random thoughts ...

I am still here. Sorry for not having posted updates but been spending quite a bit of time away from the market.

Its ironic, I am still kicking myself a little from last week. Looking at AAPL and high of the index 4 days later is quite staggering if that does turn out to be the case.

At this point, we have broken an important trendline from last weeks spinning top madness. Whats even more surprising is the amount of people now turning bullish. xtrends remains bearish of course, slope is back on full bear mode. However many others are ignoring that we broke last weeks low and keep on going long. I did 3 long attempts myself this morning with a total of 1.5 point loss at this point.

I will post some charts tonight to see a breakdown of specific trendlines. Those could be interpreted as bearish signs but at the same time it could be setting up for a move higher. Do not think thats the case but I also do not think we will be giving up the 900 that easily.

880 is in the cards of course but I would not expect this to occur this week.

Currently we are in a really weird mid term phase. A high last week in the markets just does not make sense technically - in terms of price or in terms of time. At this point the time component is more important to me then price and a high last week does not work out in ANY of my time patterns or scenarios.

The only way the time component can work out if the first week of july represents a low to make a new high by August. Do not see how from a fundamental perspective we can make that happen.

There are too many scenarios for either side at the moment - none of them clear, none of them with confirmations. The only confirmation I can take at this point is a break from last weeks low, BUT holding 916 as important support.


  1. just does not feel like it will last for some reason.

  2. That is exactly how I felt on March 9 when I was holding fas at 2.41. man are we wounded bears? Just teaches us to be humble. I still think we have some umph for the downside to 880.

  3. my concern is the follow through. Forget about the GAP for a second. Just looking at todays range its very narrow and unfortunately not easy to trade for a day trade.

    I had my chance at my mid term trade last week, right now, have no choice but to stand on the sidelines. Regardless though, being honest I would have closed out on friday anyways, even with the great short entry I had as I did not want to carry 10 points of gains short into the weekend - so not all that bad.

    At this point, it is very hard to try to make a longer term call here. Its too all over the place in terms of possible targets for entries on both the long and short side. The only advantage we have is the coiling from last week that resolved to the downside which should give us quite a bit more downside this week. At the same time, do you want to put in a large short position now? Not I, neither would I put on a long.

  4. I agree. i am just riding this until wed-thu.

    tried scalpin for long but got stopped out.

  5. tmorrow's bounce in the AM should provide good short entry.

  6. The market has done a fine job with me here. I have never been so unsure of a market move as I am now. Short or long. While we had an amazing price move in favor of the bears - where is the volume? Such a low volume day today for such a price move. Seems fishy to me.

    I am sure I am not the only one getting frustrated at the moment. And as I am typing we are seeing the standard 3:25PM short covering (10 min early today).

    For the bulls, spy needs to close above 92.79 (or around 924 on S&P). A close around 930 would be quite bullish even with such a big down day here - though do not think we will get there.

  7. Wow!!!!Chris, your majic is back. right on the money. SPY 92.85, spx 924.07

    should get the AM bounce and then back to down trend.

  8. Another very interesting (and to me quite disturbing) piece of information I wanted to share. I had advised some co-workers and friends over the past few weeks to re-allocate 401k's into "safer" type of investments at least on the mid term (3-6 months). Many have gone into money market funds to protect the gains they have made during this rally.

    One of those friends had just informed me that they had received an email from their 401K "administrator" with concerns that the money is not being put to good work. Scary ....

  9. sam, unfortunately my magic has been gone for quite a while. Though on the positive side, I had reupdated my trade rules for day and mid term swing trades over the past few days. Changed quite a few things around to fine tune position sizing, stops and exists.

    From now on, no more chasing, no more wild pattern trading, back to basics for me and 100% in accordance to my own rules. Rules are very helpful for a beginner and after a while you stop worrying about them because they are in the back of your head. However, the further and further you go along without looking at those rules carefully at least once a week, the more you start to violate them.

    I may post them up this week once I am happy with the new adjustments.

    Anyone else have a rule book? May make it a separate post and we can all share our findings.

  10. I put up my day trade one already.

    Going to add the mid term (2+ days) some time this week.

  11. your rules makes sense. will you be posting or twittering on your blog?

  12. you mean for day trades? Probably not unless I see something important. For mid term trades I will post like I did in the past whenever I take larger positions.