Tuesday, July 28, 2009


I wanted to post a comparison of our major low back in march and our most recent major low here off 865. As you can see - this looks like the same graph with the only difference of seeing even less retracements now. As you remember our old rally kept on going higher and was only stopped once (the top red circle) - after this magic one day wonder the market continued higher and higher towards yellow. Can this be the case here? We are so close to 1000 on SPX that it would almost be a shame to not even give this a test.

GDP numbers on Friday I believe (I think it was this Friday). Do you think they are going to tell us all is bad? Really? I just found this comparison here interesting as this most recent rally seems to have MORE strength in terms of price then our rally off the 666 low. Of course volume was quite a bit different but we have been going higher and higher on lower and lower volume.

Just wanted to share this with everyone =)


  1. that 970 really is a wall huh? I'm truly amazed at how the market behaves (or manipulated) at these round numbers.

  2. Just posted this on evil after he had posted a question whether or not this is a breakdown or a fake.

    could be a fake breakdown. Take a look at the 15 min for the past 2 days. Bullish lowering wedge in a 5 day range bound (965-980) consolidation after an extensive move up.

    I feel the market did not run all this way to drop after consolidating for 5 days. Of course this also has to happen because I covered ALL my shorts yesterday at the highs taking probably one of the biggest losses for me this year (yeah yeah emotional exit lol).

  3. I should be on vacation lol but I cannot get away from this market. I have been doing more and more playing around with FOREX. This may be something to hold me over as forex is a lot more technical.

    Also did you guys see the EURUSD? Such a STRONG move and the market is practically flat lol. Keep in mind we are barely down 10 points thus far and still within our consolidation range.

    Do not think they drop this much before GDP data on Friday. Wonder how good/bad thats going to be ...

  4. But seems many things have changed since then. Shanghai crashed, oil crashed, USD up, data now starting to be interpreted negatively. Yea I know...it's still anyone's guess. I am still fully hedged. Lost quite a lot myself at the H&S failure.

  5. oh I agree. However, we have been seeing this for quite a while. The fundamental picture has not changed much.

    Consumer sentiment = bad
    durable goods = bad
    dollar = bad (for markets)

    and even if we drop. We have MAJOR previous highs at 956 and 930. All of this range could provide ample buying in "oversold" conditions.

    I have to admit, I should have looked at FOREX a lot sooner. You guys and girls should really take a look at it. It is so much more technical and bound by rules. Too bad I just found this now =)

  6. 930 is the best case scenario for bears. 956 more likely. still holding short puts. Let us see how far this drags down. No bear is going to be long here and no long is going to be investing here. All the short squeez has already taken place. In order to suck old bears, neo-bull and old bulss in, it has to retrace to 956 or 943 or 930. The shot at 1010 when all will be calling official death of bear and we told you so story on CNBC. Then it will be ripe to crumble and only after all these trillions of dolaars sitting on the side line are commited.

    How many points does it take to absorb a trillion? any one knows the calculations?

  7. I think current market valuation is somewhere at 15 trillion. Do not have updated numbers though.

    so around 14 billion USD per SPX point lol