Friday, July 17, 2009

My 2 Key Sectors at support

Take a look at XLF and IYR. Both of those sectors are not participating on the upside and are very close to yesterdays lows. Definitely something to watch carefully as a break of either one to the downside will take the other sectors with them.

Its OPEX today - so no big moves expected and a normal narrow range to close flat. Do not think we will see any surprises on the upside or downside today.


  1. Response to your previous, "story" post... All I've got to say is you've got the balls. And good luck! :) I am again pondering whether or not to hold some I-ETFs over the weekend.

  2. I have to admit - I am on my last straw here to be quite honest. The only positive thing I can take from here is that I have managed my capital a bit better - of course this rally has cost me - but I am walking away with some bruises which I think is acceptable.

    If this does take out 965. I am not sure what I am going to do to be quite honest. Will re-evaluate when we get there but a longer term break is in order after such a devastating quarter.

    The one thing that is really puzzling me here recently is the amount of computer based trading. Even CNBC is picking up on quants and HFT topics in their news. As the majority of the volume is based on computer based models at the moment, and there are no real investors and traders left - then I cannot imagine why we would have any more downside. Lets see but there is a huge amount of confidence with investors at the moment.

    It almost seems there is no need to sell for anyone (which is a contradiction to my personal views). We shall see. I would love to fast forward to next year and then be able to look back at this time frame here to determine exactly what happened, where was the turning point? What made this madness end or continue?

    because quite frankly, if we can figure out the signs and confirmations from the past 4-5 months we can use that again in the future to improve all of us.

  3. Ok I just broke the emotional rule. I'm really upset now. I bought more UNG today and was going to let it go for a decent profit but got greedy and it started to come down. So I put a stop loss but then it tanked so fast it didn't get triggered. Now I just dumped SDS for a loss. ARGH!! Sorry just venting.

  4. thats why we are here =) share the good and the bad and get ideas.

    Also - quite interesting that Zero hedge just posted an article to exactly what I am describing above ... kind of eerie since that had happened before lol

    Goes into the details of HFT and the fact that they are controlling the market now and decided on where they want to take it. Its not investors and traders anymore. Those HFT systems do whatever they darn well please - completely aside from any technical or fundamentals.

    They can drop the bid, drop the ask do whatever they want as volume controls price - if you control volume you can decided where you want to take it. Combine that with leveraged vehicles available today you can manipulate the underlying instrument, profit from the derivative and bring the instrument back to where you want it.

    Crazy market we are in ...

  5. and computers stepped in right at VWAP ... again lol

    I am not sure if I have become recently obsessed with computer based trading or if it has always been like this and I just never put too much attention to it ...

  6. They eat TA for lunch as they have super programs and cash. they know all ins and outs of TA. Again we may have seen the high or it will not make a new high above 956 and we will see 820 before we see 1050 to be a meaningfull rally.