Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Noob Index Update

For some of my older readers you heard me refer to the noob index and I did a write up a while ago on the very precise relation between AAPL and SPX. AAPL just made a new high - if we are to follow this index and it will do the same as it has done over EVERY past rally here we will have a new high on SPX at least 4 days away. So taking this as a measure - SPX can reach a new high on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

I may make another write up on this some time this week to show the correlation. Interesting view for sure.


  1. I agree with you as I had mentioned earlier from a timiny cycle blogs that a rally top will be around July 22, which will then drop to July 31 and then rally to August 7, which will be a great short buy and then after the crash (800) a super buy around August 20.

    so far his calls have been right on the money as far as directions and turning points are concerned.

    Also not a Swedish scientists projection based on theroy of complexcity that Chinese market--a bubble in the making -- will collapse around July 22.

    Let us see hoe it plays out.

  2. I am glad that I cashed in shorts on Friday and got in with small long, which again I cashed in on Monday ( kicking myself for not using trailing stop) prematurely third time and left good chunk on the table. That is life.

  3. Vix is rising and is up for the day. what does it signify? Chris any thoughts here?

  4. if I had the guts shorting the close will probably be the trade of the month hah. But then again - I am beaten down so no more for me =)

    Its a bit of a gamble lol

    There is no volume today - none, unless someone else besides a computer steps in here nothing more will happen but continue stepping higher to close at the HIGHs.

    Who knows ... 937 is definitely doable.

    So in summary - stopped out of ES at 865.75, a quarter point of the low with a BIG position.

    Now 926.25 - dreaming is nice. My hedge I had yesterday (July call) up 300% - wow just wow.

    No idea here - we are in uncharted waters. People talking about blow off tops - who knows. HUGE price strength but no participation from any real buyers - extremely low volume for such a move here.

  5. ok not 300% ... bought SWG GL at the lows yesterday after I entered a bunch of new shorts. Current price 3.25 ... still a good move if I had kept it and not sold way too early.

    Me and hedges lol - I am getting better at using them but let me tell you. A hedge is there for a reason and should NEVER be considered a trade. For me I only hedge to see my open P/L remain the same or equal whenever I am unsure of market moves.

    My new rule for hedges - ONLY close out at break even or a small loss. Never close a hedge when in the money. Its just an emotional thing for me at least.

    Its quite fun watching the market here - I would really say that we will be looking back at those times here for many years to come pondering what we did, how we traded and made money, lost money, what we learned from this. By that time hopefully it will be on our yachts somewhere in the Caribbeans for our annual hedge fund meetings to give out BIG bonus checks GS-style.

  6. I think we drop to 920 and tomorrow we see 937 before meaningful down until friday and then rally into 22 to make a new high. then it is downward

  7. I am tempted to buy some inverse ETFs here at 930... debating whether or not I would hold overnight...