Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Retracement and retests

It is now the 8th day that SPX has not been able to even give an intraday test at the previous days low. It seems even after negative earnings the market is unable to even try the most basic move - even a bull market allows for profit taking and re-grouping - however not this market here.

If I had just done scalping the past 4 trade days. Every day I have had amazing gains at one point that all evaporated yet again as I was too stubborn to hold on thinking it would be a nice position for a good retracement lower. Every time do i have to micromanage this position and all I end up doing is improving the avg price slightly and close the day break even.

Guess I should have stayed in bed resting and getting better instead. Would have been the same.

15 comments:

  1. chaugsy - you going to short the 965 level?

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  2. chaugsy - you still trading scared or are you ready to man up and make some $$?

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  3. just added more shorts here =)

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  4. thought they do have stops above high of day. If it takes out the high we get another 8 pts on the upside, which I will short again.

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  5. FAZ and SRS have not budged much in the last three days. FAZ should have been in low 30s.

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  6. Would you call this an ascending or a descending triangle on the S&P?

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  7. At this point, whether its a triangle, wedge, diamond pattern, megaphone, head/shoulder.

    Any pattern that we had seen has not seen any type of proper resolution. At this point it is very difficult to make a TA call here in terms of where we will move.

    The amount of times we have seen this much upside is VERY rare in the history of the markets. So TA goes out the window.

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  8. ok stopped out of additional shorts here. Looking for a break on the upside now to bring is finally to the 964-965 range we have been looking for.

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  9. chaugsy - this market is a biatch!

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  10. yeah I have to agree. Bull or bear you have to be really frustrated with this market. As mentioned the majority of my account is supposed to go into longer term positions - but I have had a horrible track record to put them into the bearish side. I cannot justify buying the upside here - and I am quite discouraged and frustrated to enter the short side as well.

    Only thing we can do is stay cash .....

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  11. I do not think we will see 965. should close below yesterday's high and that will be the next few days of down trend.

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  12. "Anonymous said...

    Would you call this an ascending or a descending triangle on the S&P?
    "

    Thats kind of what I was talking about. You were on the right track there with the pattern, broke out on the upside pulled back down.

    Quite difficult to make some real predictions so to what will occur. I keep on holding on to the hope that a retracement will have to come and profit taking must occur.

    I mean who knows, maybe everyone has already taken their profits and we just did not notice thanks to HFT.

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  13. Thanks Chris. I am starting to lean back on the bear side. A little afraid of these gap opens.

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  14. I have to be honest. I am throwing up my arms here - you have a handful of traders that participate in the mornings based on news and the rest is a dead zone without any participation by anyone.

    As some of you know one of my main rules is no trades before 9:45 and none after 3:00. The reason for that had been the strong volatility as traders battle it out on either side. Nowadays - NOTHING happens especially in the 3:00 hour. Yes we see most of the days move in that time frame, but what are we talking about, a hand ful of points mostly to the upside and no volume. When was the last time you have seen some nice 1+ million SPY 1-min bars? They are there once or twice a day but thats it.

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  15. I have loaded up with puts at 957for sell on Monday close. It should close below yesterday's high.

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