Thursday, July 23, 2009


Everyone, you keep on hearing me refer to the USD. As you can see this is the SAME trendline we have been using for weeks now as a guide and its acting as perfect resistance. Now to be quite honest this is looking rather bullish here - we do have a tri star bearish reversal pattern but I do not put that much significance on the 3 dojis here. Yes they can lead to a reversal but many times its a re-grouping move before taking out the high.

Other blogs have talked about the dollar as well and of course the effect it would have on equities. I am glad that the trend lines we have been using continue to help us through this market here.

I have to admit, today was the first time I questioned myself and tried to determine if I could be wrong - could this have been it? Was the 666 the low, will my 480 number ever come? Well, its definitly looking like market participants believe the problems are resolved and that the problems have been addressed to a point of avoiding any collapse or breakdown. Maybe I am just high on meds - who knows.

Forecast wise I have not much to add here - we are still moving higher along a very steep trendline and have not been able to retest the previous days intraday low while at the same time taking out very long term high pivot points - inredible, unbelievable, impossible. How can one make a call here?


  1. here come the 965

  2. no shame in being poor...


  4. 965? what 965...? All I see is 975...

  5. at a loss of words ... honestly guys. Never seen anything like this here.

  6. when will they frustrate bulls?

  7. take a look at that EURUSD chart now ... nothing happened. It reversed gains back below the trendline while the market keeps on making new highs.

    Either way - I am done with this market quite literally. I will be taking a longer break, probably at least one month before I dare touch any stock again, long or short side. In terms of emotional roller coaster this has been quite extreme for me. From being stopped out at 865.75 (quarter point of the low), to having shorted this way too early and still being short now thinking a retracement will come (that never came).

    At this point, we are only 20 points away from 1000 on the S&P - a target that is definitly achievable and will bring even more pain for my current short exposure.

    Quite a bad day for me as you can imagine =) Been having too many of those recently.

  8. If the market is the unbiased pain maker, it is bulls turn. Bulls could be waiting for that 1000-1050 and buying the dips ( they will come Chris as early as tomorrow) but no turn. As usual us bears will exit at break even or with lesser loss to see it go down to 875. Who knows? No ananlysi of any kind is working --fundamental or TA.

    keep the faith.

  9. AAPl is not doing great today. could be a good short here. nO new news from aapl. earning bounce already took place.

  10. It's like McDonald's, I'm loving it. But I'm long, lol.

  11. Chrsi, you are not the only one who is ambivalent now if we are in the secular bull market. Many piad serivces pundits are rethinking and seem ready to drop the bear scenario.

    Recent Bull psychology: if they made the money in the last ten days, they are all ready to bet house when the market corrects and say all in.
    Bears: Why fight the feds. join the gang on the bull side. ( I am one of them).
    Old bulls: they are drunk. and hoping for spx 1550 so they can break even.
    What a prefect condition to screw all.

    I would not be surprised to see lone x-trend people have the last laugh.

  12. Yeah, i can't believe this shit. Bought some TZA around 17.60 today. And RAD at $1.35 at the close. That's all I hold. 5% TZA, 10% RAD (plenty of support for a safe exit if need be).

    I got crushed on the futures I shorted when they gapped up to 910 last week. Didn't cover on them until 940. By the grace of god I've been able to make all of those losses back, plus a respectable profit in the last two days off of small caps again.

    You really can't hold a bias in this market anymore. With that said, the velocity of this move is unsustainable. Thus, we are due for some sort of a pullback. The question is how much though? My brain tells me a lot. My eyes tell me mild.

    Sam- X-trends is retarded. I used to follow them religiously until I witnessed the meltdown in March. As right as they were about "the crash", they were equally wrong about the bounce. "Micro-managing"? Give me a break.

  13. By the way, this not a secular bull. NO WAY. During the great depression they had these type of bounces multiple times. I'm sure it felt like similar to this each time. The shorting pros and market bloggers knew that, and they talked a good game like they'd be ready for it (bear market rally). But the truth is none of those pros lived in that era. This ain't the tech crash ladies and gents.

    It's easy to see the charts from past history and say what you would do in a similar circumstance -- it's a lot harder to follow through with it under real trading conditions. That's why technical analysis is still so effective...because human emotions remain the same.

    I don't think this is the end of the world like they do on Zero Hedge, but I also refuse to believe this is the next great bull.

  14. sam, I have to admit, my 480 number is shaking.

    Whenever I have a discussion with people now about the big drop (since from here to 480 is a LONG way). They give me this look - you know what I am talking about. LOL

    Imagine buying a used car that the sales man is trying to sell you for 10K, he knows its worth only half that, you know that, but yet he tries to sell you the car for 10K anyways. You give him "the look". That look lol - I am almost giving it to myself.

    schismatic, I considering myself a decently smart individual who can make some good forecasts and has hopes to make some decent money on this market. Its just not possible. I got taken out of my long at 865.75 (yes I am still fuming about that one especially now), shorted at 906 (and lucky for me covered all the next day). Then started shorting again and again and again.

    Money wise this has been one of my worst 10 days of trading - and I look at myself and say "Chris, I thought you were a smart dude and knew what you were doing".

    Its not about being smart anymore. I used to enjoy trading but this rally here, the last 2 weeks trading have removed any desire for me to make this something I enjoy or want to continue on doing. I am an emotional guy and I get big ups and downs - so one may say I will recover emotionally and be back in the game. I have to be honest - I do not think that the case and this really has been the final nail in the coffin for me. I am sure I will be trading in the future - but not as active as I am now.

    This almost sounds like a farewell. Well it kind of is ......

  15. Chris, I would not give up. A breather yes. I too have given up the recovery to break even point but I have been learning strategy to make it up. I am staying away from short term moves and hence options. ETF are fine as you can hold and go for a swing trade. Here some thing in NYT (RE: High frequency trading), which I have been speculating about, but it is for real. ( They eat our TA for lunch with their super computer). This explains how one my stop loss was executed whihc was significantly below the trading range. Since then I have been using mental stops.

    "But as new marketplaces have emerged, PCs have been unable to compete with Wall Street’s computers. Powerful algorithms — “algos,” in industry parlance — execute millions of orders a second and scan dozens of public and private marketplaces simultaneously"


  16. Chris, your blog is a blast to read and I have learned a lot from you. Rights and wrongs. I hope you stick around! Good luck trading to all.

  17. thanks for the kind words. I made a new post with my official call for a break. Lets see what the market does in the next month without me =)