Thursday, November 19, 2009

Another one for the dollar

Well it seems EVERY blog is now talking about the dollar. Do you remember 3 months back when we were the first to bring this up as a big carry trade. Kind of proud of the fact that we have been talking about the dollar here for many months already during our charting. Now here is an interesting chart of ES futures and EURUSD. I highlighted some areas of importance.

This market is not going anywhere until the dollar makes a turn here ... when looking at the EURUSD daily - check out the 50dma.

Now 2 things can happen here - against all odds the dollar has been at this exact same spot before - take a look at the EURUSD 3 year history can you can see that it can actually do the total opposite and just launch higher like a mad man causing us to have a huge meltup on the markets. Now the obvious thing here is down - and considering how many dollar bears you have, you will see quite a short covering which will make this bad boy plummet.

So important turning point that can go both ways. Take a look at the daily ranges and tight consolidation in the last 2 weeks - this is coiling up for a BIG move. One we need to participate on - up or down - do not care =)

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