Friday, November 13, 2009

Key Levels to watch today

Its Friday the week before OPEX so we have to be ready for some wild swings next week. You all know me, I love swings especially on short term trading setups. I have been holding back the past few days on day trades as I wanted to see how the top would resolve itself. As mentioned in the post yesterday I am still a bit unsure of direction. You may remember one of my favorite quotes

"better being out of the markets wishing you were in, then in the markets wishing you were out"

This currently applies to my puts as I am quite concerned with another push up here. It is possible that we have set a possible short term bottom, one that actually qualifies as a valid W4 corrective move at 1085 ES. This was my main reason for my long attempt yesterday though I did not want to risk too much on this possible trade as I was still sure that we had made a failed W5 move. As it turns out we still have a high potential setup for higher ranges into OPEX.

So today its important to watch the 1082-1085 range. A breach here will put higher probabilities on the failed W5 move, if we manage to stay above this range today and close above 1091-1092 we have to be ready for more upside. The upper side is 1096 that we need to monitor closely. It is very possible that we stay within this tight range today but I would not count out a recovery to break above this range.

Below is my updated bullish count - which is currently my main concern. On the other hand remember we still have a possibility of the SPX high being a short term top at least. Take a look at the MACD again on the daily - yes - a HUGE divergence that bears should be happy about and bulls need to overcome. However a rally into the upper ranges as identified below should help bring MACD higher.

31 comments:

  1. looks like we are setting up for a break of the key range here .... down below - there is not much that will hold it. So we need to BREAK 1082.

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  2. or not ... crazy market hah big volume selling and full recovery on less then half the volume.

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  3. how do they do that... like really

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  4. only if we knew ... sigh. I have to be honest, high probabilities that we remain in a tighter range today ... only way I can see the LOD be broken today is after 3:00PM ... other then that the probabilities for higher prices are more realistic.

    Believe it or not I had my buy button on ES at 1083 (window was already up to confirm) but I told myself "not after 2 1-min-BIG-volume down bars.

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  5. shorted some here at 1092. Tight stop as always.

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  6. got stop on break even again. Looking corrective for another move higher to retest 1096+

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  7. trying it short again as a scalp.

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  8. have to admit even this here looks corrective to go even higher ... how can this be possible lol

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  9. market has flatlined ... no more buyers? or market waiting on the last bears to cover?

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  10. another day of great short term calls and I am stuck waiting lol. Really thinking of just taking a loss on those puts now and going back to pure day trading.

    "So today its important to watch the 1082-1085 range"

    "The upper side is 1096 that we need to monitor closely"

    LOD = 1082.75
    HOD = 1096

    emm, guys, why am I not making any money? Still too skured to trade it seems. Well I am short at 1094.75 and wanting to close out hah - at least get some partial profits.

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  11. am short at 1095. what is the target you are looking for here Chris?

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  12. I am struggling a bit with trying to identify the proper targets. Its a bit difficult from here for sure. Of course 1090 is the first level that I will look for. However, after this, I am a bit back and forth (just like yesterday) since I may want to hold on to this position. I am looking for reasons not to.

    Remember my rules state that a day trade cannot be turned into a mid term trade (thats why I have separate futures accounts to force me into following rules).

    But we have a potential today to close below the SPY open price at 109.35. If we do break this I may "bend" my rule just a little bit and let this trade run. Again - it all depends on how we trade if we do indeed break this line. If not, my ES trade just turned into another free trade as stops are close to break even.

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  13. Yeh, I raised the stop at 1095. tired of giving with stoplosses

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  14. nice thats where mine is right now. Need one tag at 1091.75 and I am break even. When looking at my positions you can see MOST of the ES day trades are either break even or less then the original 2 point stop. If I try 5 times and make no money and just have one winner I still come out with profits. Just takes too much patience lol

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  15. this right here is the type of move I was talking about. We had flatlined waiting for new buyers to come in and now have a potential to reverse those gains AND MAYBE just maybe close at 1083-084.

    We just hit my first target at 1090.50 - and I think we may push this lower here BUT just as I have been saying yesterday - I am not sure. When looking at purely charts and technicals in what I would consider a normal market we should be closing below the open as a spinner but slightly in the green (yeah seems like a complex type of close and very specific setup).

    IF that were to occur - we have a big chance for more downside on MONDAY BUT we also have the typical "sunday night manipulation games" which again could put about 10 points on the close for today which brings us right back to where our current positions are (1095).

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  16. so it REALLY is a very difficult call to make for me today. Take profits now after having hit my minimum gains zone? Or let it run with a high potential for turning this trade into 25 points of gains by monday early afternoon.

    Sigh decisions decisions.

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  17. ok right at the open price today. May go long here via my other account. Will let you know if I do.

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  18. I'm looking for this thing to fall into the close. The push juuuusst isn't strong enough.

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  19. Yeah thats the highest probability setup at the moment and MAY convince me to keep my position here. If we do end up going to 1083-1084 I will take a partial profit there.

    Lets see ... Friday the 13th, the last 80 minutes of the week. A lot can happen here.

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  20. you can see the MM's stepping in here adding buy orders to prevent further declines. Lets see those extremely leveraged bulls wipe out their cash so quickly ... time to sell me thinks =)

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  21. smart move ... protect those profits =)

    Its a bit safer at 1091.25 though, since they can do a quick push above VWAP just to reverse. Lets see first.

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  22. taken partial profit at 1089.50.

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  23. trading below SPY open price now. Could it be???? We still need to close the day positive so I would expect another push lower with a small rally to close it right around 1087.75-1088.25

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  24. those final numbers were SPX - 1087-75-1088.25 NOT ES.

    And yeah sorry it gets confusing since I refer to ES now pretty much all the time. But the SPX equivalent is important today so I thought it was worth mentioning.

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  25. will be looking for a re-entry on sunday night.

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  26. lucky me ... hah. After all I am a broken bear that knows better and I followed my rules, as much as I did not want to - those rules saved me again and allowed me to make some profits.

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  27. look at the amzn meltup ... going parabolic here ... sigh. its gonna pin it right where I hate it the most ... 133 - my mental stop for this position. Right at the close too hah.

    Added one more put here. But willing to let this one go on monday if it does not reverse.

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  28. Chances are that we go up. Look for the signs on Sunday and Mon 3 - 4 am. we may see 10470 on dow next week.

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