Friday, November 6, 2009

Waiting for Jobs Data

Well nothing more to say. We did breach 1064.50 during the overnight hours as expected with the close this high. However the market is waiting now for important news.

As described in the comments yesterday - the 10% number may already be priced in as we had been talking about it for many months now. So its up to the market to decide what to do. We did recover the losses from Friday last week - so the market can make a decision here on what to do.

So looking back at the ranges from sunday:

"Short setups 1061-1062 with stop at 1064.50. If that fails short again at 1068 with stop at 1073."

It seems neither one of them will provide a safe short entry. High at the moment us 1066.50 just a few points away - if we do reach the 1068-1073 range I would be heistant to enter a swing position with a minimum of 25 pts spx gains. So as a result I may use this for a scalp but nothing more. Lets see how the market reacts.

Will post updates before cash hours to figure out direction.


  1. Whow... 10.2%! I thought they'd just print the 10% today and let the decimals play out slowly. Futures tanked a bit, so I guess they didn't price in the 0.2% haha... Still don't know what to do, gotta wait till cash hours.

  2. crazy recovery lol - I just spent the last 2 hours removing a darn trojan from my computer. Must have gotten it on another blog because nothing has changed on my setup ....

  3. I am short since 1065.5 stop at 1067

    what do you see here Chris?

  4. been spending most of my day with the darn computer problem. Have not had much time to watch the markets (missed some good trade opportunities). Overall, I think we have more upside first - the market was not able to be taken down today with the job data. So I would expect at least a test of the 1071-1074 range on ES.

    BUT its a guess at this point - do not have any edge in terms of trying to figure out where we may head.

  5. entered some amazon puts here. AMZN dec 125 puts x 4

  6. we have some more data today that is conveniently put towards the end of the day on Friday hah - I think consumer data at 3:00 if I remember correctly.

    This will either cause a nice spike towards 1071 ES (where I will short) or the start to a sell off into the close.

    If we sell off into the close I will not enter any positions - if we rally I may even get into some puts too.

  7. considering adding a small dec spy put as well here. Around 30% position, nothing too crazy yet. Want to be able to double down if we get to 1075.

  8. for anyone following the amzn trade. Looking for 115 within the next 4 weeks. Even if that does not happen - we are so far outside of the bollingers - it has to remain sideways.

    This position may eventually be turned into a spread depending on price action - for now exit and targets are clear. AMZN 115 towards first week of December.

  9. also take a look at the GBPJPY trade from last night. Got stopped out pretty close to the top. Was a nice move down - why oh why do I have to sleep? lol - wish I could be up 24/7