Monday, November 9, 2009

Not what I expected

Well what an overnight session - definitly not what I expected and I added 2 more loosers to my positions. I know I said I will not justfy trades and hope I am not sounding like I am making an excuse here - but as you can see last night presented a low risk short trade with a tight stop that could have played out. Well it did not - and I stopped out with minimal damage. Looking back at the last few months - this would have definitly been a trade I would have kept running without much of a stop as I "believed" we would see lower prices.

Now last night I was confident of lower prices towards the open and that definitly did not play out. I made the mistake of being too focused on what I considered a pull back for today - that I did not even put much emphasis on a 11 point gap higher before cash open. This confidence of course was coupled with having hit our short targets we had outlined last week but no clear plan of what would happen if we do break those levels.

So from here - after having broken an important FIB level (the 61.8%) our next target is the 76% level at SPY 108.30 or ES 1078.

Now the case towards 1016SPX I was expecting is being questioned quite a bit - from a pure charting perspective - we should see a new high - DOW 10300 is just around the corner and this move here could be setting up for a run there. Also keep in mind that the DOW is currently outperforming SPX so we could be making a new high on the DOW while we create a double top or marginal new high on SPX.

Either way - I am going to have to go back to the drawing board now to figure out our next trades. The chances of the open today being the high of the week - lets be honest - very low probabilities so we have to figure out how we can make some good trades this week.


  1. ok expecting at least a partial GAP fill of at least 38% - 50% possible but not very likely.

    Remember 1% GAP up has a VERY high potential of a stepping day with low of day being set within the first 15 minutes 2-3 pts off the open with a quick run towards the morning high around 10:25-10:35.

    I am still short ES for a scalp with exit at 1072. As you remember I got into some puts on Friday towards the close. May get out of those as well if we get our GAP fill - will update everyone on what I do.

  2. ok adding to my dec puts here. Another 5 contracts.

  3. giving it another minute or so but this move has a max of 3 ES points to go (1088 should contain it and give us a decent size retracement).

  4. also scalping ES @ 1084.50 - 2 pt stop.

  5. quite incredible ... the day after we get 10+% unemployment we see new highs on the DOW on no volume and one of the strongest up days in terms of price in a while lol

  6. at least amzn is making a move lower =). I am short again here - third try of the day (and last try allowed according to my day trade rules).

  7. take a look at the 15 min spy chart with RSI as an indicator .... incredible looking.

  8. and yeah have to admit - a short here is probably not the wisest move and only gives a very low probability trade since we have a stepping day today. But could not ignore the 10-26 high of 1088.XX (ES).

    Was hoping for a 4 pt reversal lower here in the last hour - but I doubt we will even get that.

  9. as incredible as it seems we just witnessed the largest pullback of the day with almost 3 points - enough to reverse and rally again. Its my own fault for being short here I know - on a day like today I should not be attempting any short scalps but I had assumed some volatility at least with such a large GAP - instead we get one of the most boring days we have had in a while - at least for me.

    Looking at some of the other blogs - everyone seems worn out. More and more bears capitulating - traders being frustrated by not making enough money trading.

  10. and yes anyone who is paying attention ... you remember how I had nailed the trade on EURUSD last week.

    Today my stop price on the position was 1.50185. High of day 1.50192 .... SOOO close. Don't you hate when that happens.

    Updated positions to reflect latest performance. Not looking pretty as a start - but an old german saying "the first plums are always bad" hah

    Believe it or not I am still very happy with my performance over the last 2 weeks ever since I started trading actively again. I feel much more in control of a trade nowadays - and a day like today - SPX up over 2% with my only positions bearish - have to admit - it felt refreshing not having to sweat being in a position and wanting out.