Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Still deciding on where to go

Well the market continues to make it clear - any pull back will be bought and the market seems to only have one goal in mind. Go higher. We had been talking about various resistance levels that provided a short term barrier but ultimately small pull backs of at most 60 SPX points was enough to distribute and take on that same resistance again to break through.

While we had some lagging sectors during the last up run with DOW being the leader, many have caught up. I went through probably 100 different charts yesterday, and I have to admit, while many seem to be touching their respective 52 week highs, I see no strong indication for a pull back to come. Of course there are some great charts of weak players that have broken down but its a smaller percentage of charts showing this type of break down.

Looking back at the charts from last week we should still be in wave 5 and may have completed it as a failed W5 attempt, however, based on price action we could still be within a complex W4. If that is the case we have to be ready to accept 1130 at the minimum.

As mentioned, charts at this point post a 50/50 type of setup. As we are entering a historically bullish month of December many are pointing to breakouts on the upside, while a few are more bearish in nature. I saw an interesting post on slope of hope yesterday. It seems Tim has gone back to pure equities trading as this may provide an easier way to profit from the market. I tend to agree with that view point after seeing all those charts yesterday again. Lets see what the remainder of this opex week has in store for us before we make any more calls for longer term direction.


  1. any idea what happened there? up strong, down even stronger.

  2. nothing, just the ordinary :)

  3. closed aapl put spread. Not feeling it here and will try to lighten up or hedge other positions as well.

  4. really do not want to close the month in the red again. At the moment I am break even for the month - considering I had 2 great trades in the first week that are now balancing out my deep underwater puts.

  5. a break of 1000 ES will give us a possible target of 1083 on the downside.