Thursday, May 7, 2009

Could it be?



When even the most committed bears capitulate the top is made. I got stopped out of a large futures short early this morning around 5 points off the high - and I made no attempts to re-short using futures.

Talking about salt on an open wound ....

EDIT: Added nasdaq

37 comments:

  1. hovering at 912 now for second time. Based on todays action a break here very likly to go to 902-903. Worth a day trade at least with a tight stop above.

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  2. I am finally approaching abreakeven point. It took lot of stress on my part to hold on to the shorts. Do you still see 902 potential?. I have put in tight stoploss now to protect the gains.

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  3. Still potential yes, we will actually know in the next 5-10 min if we will make a move lower. Otherwise another leg up to retest the 918-920 range which would be a great day trade short.

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  4. 2-3 more minutes =) then we get the confirmation of direction here.

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  5. market still stalling. 4 min over target. Expect a quick move here like now. minimum of 4 points in 5 minutes.

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  6. I got out of shorts with god gains. Let us try again at 920.

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  7. off by a few minutes, and only moved 3.5 pts in 5 minutes.

    If I were a magician my account would be filled with money.

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  8. Thanks anyway. May be when you have time aftre the close, you could post a leeson the art of the calls just you made. What did you see in your TA that gave you this inclinaiton. We all would like to learn, if it is possible.

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  9. do you see hts as base building for 920 and higher now or down still has to play out?

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  10. no this is not base building quite yet. Not 100% sure what to make of all the action here for the day thus far. Its the first day in a long time that the bears got some traction, however we need 2 more confirmed days (not necessarily consequitive days) before we can really make a proper statement for a bear case.

    Base building is a bit different, this has been a steep buying frenzy breaking resistance ranges without proper testing. Also stress test results at 5:00PM today. Its going to be quite scary in after hours.

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  11. ok I am getting a bit excited here, we are coming closer to the 902-903 range. The question is whether or not this was the required distribution to go higher or if this is a reversal day.

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  12. and this is not supporting my position, but distribution is low volume and sideways type action within a narrow range.

    We came off the top and have not been able to retrace significantly thus far, all occurring on very strong volume.

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  13. lots of support in the next 2 points. Watch for a 8-10 point bounce of the low here.

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  14. I agree. the slope of decline have tappered off a bit.

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  15. I think now the bounce should come in shortly.

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  16. don't think so. Bounce time was earlier. We may see a small move up but nothing more then 3-4 points.

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  17. do you see on daily basis a falling wedge? do you think this is bullish?

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  18. yeah, but not gonna see a breakout to the upside.

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  19. remember our breakout to form a base scenario this applies here as well. Look for stall at previous peak on low volume.

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  20. ya'll think we've seen our IT top? I don't buy it. I'm covering here. Weary of that one last fatal nut punch to the Bears. 945?

    Maybe i've just been beaten into fetal position though over the last couple months.

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  21. oh yeah I agree. The way my morning started was probably one of the worst starts to a day. Did you see that one HUGE bar on the futures at 8:31? Took out a HUGE short I entered yesterday. I had set a fairly wide stop loss as I did not want to get taken out by the overnight crowd.

    That was probably the worst single position beat I have had in a while. Not that it was so much money (well it was) but the last final death blow to get me to say "Chris, WTF are you doing here?" (hence the post today seemed rather capitulated)

    I am staying short with SDS (represents 50% of my total capital) but staying flat on futures. Waiting for the 5:00 fiasco to see if I want to dip my toes.

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  22. I am all in cash now. That shows we have been tamed by bulls. I would say 930-940 would be good entry.

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  23. Just FYI Friday call from other blog:

    the call is to stay short unless the spx closes between 913.28 and 919.99.

    Who woulda thunk...made some money on the short side?

    Will go to 1.5x.

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  24. haha, i feel you man. This has been a relentless rally. It all is about your timeframes though. It seems you guys are doing a lot of daytrading here. I'll partake in that sometimes, but usually only to get the best average price for a swing trade. Trying to keep up with the intraday swings makes me an emotional mess :) SDS is great here for swingtrade timeframe Chris -- good call. This market ain't gonna run away from us upwards. It may make us feel like it will, but we still have more business to attend to between 800-900 before we can go up much further in my opinion. Looking forward to the stress test soap opera to come to a close tonight. Glad to see some of my bears take some coin back today.

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  25. What blog is that from sam? As long as it's not Atilla's. Don't get me wrong, he's my favorite IT to LT trader, but the ST is not his forte. He's always early on his entries, but I've never seen someone time swing exits better than that Turk. Often knowing when to exit is more important than knowing when to enter (depending on your timeframe). He comes across as very good people in his writings as well. Don't read it as much now that it attracted a yahoo message board like following. Disqus is great for filtering out the noise and handpicking the people you want to listen to :)

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  26. 907 was my line in the sand. Just stopped out of SDS here.

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  27. FYI this is as close to capitulation as you can get. 2-3 weeks with this position back and forth and closed out today. Probably an emotional exit, one that I will not be proud of, but rather get some sanity back =)

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  28. http://forecastertrading.blogspot.com/2009/05/fridays-call.html

    For the friday call I dipped in for few srs.
    the link above. he has been real good lately.

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  29. I think we see 890 may be tomorow. After market should say something when the stress test are out. it could be a dud.

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  30. majority of BEAR blogs are calling for 920,930,940, or 950 to add short positions and are being cautious to short here. I am sure they have good TA case.

    Could it be that, just a guess, that it could continue down to 890,880, or 850 before trying and going to 950?

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  31. why did futures just spike like a crackhead that got a hit? What's the news?

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  32. just a bit short of 100 billion of our money needed to help out the banks lol

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30626465

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  33. Bear market rallies end on good news ..

    To quote our main man berny "stress test results will bring much needed clarity and comfort for investors" (along those lines)

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  34. haha,history will not look fondly upon Bernie and Tiny Tim. Sooner or later this shell game will come to an end.

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