Friday, May 8, 2009

Short Post Today

Not a lot of time this morning. Futures already breached the 920 range that I was holding out for to short. Job reports today "should" be positive giving more upside. While we had a great reversal day yesterday we did not break the low for the week which makes yesterday yet again bullish.

I had closed out my SDS at 907 as a break here indicated further upside to be able to enter at a better price. We have broken 912 decisively now which was my line in the sand. On the upper ranges we have the 945 and of course our dropping 200dma.

I will post more updates during the day as time permits.

31 comments:

  1. thanks for this Chris,

    all the bearish talk at the moment seems to be saying were pretty close to the turn that will see us move down..i'm assuming when you mention 945 youre talking about top resistance so chances are we may get close to it before moving down?
    Like many of us im just trying to get as close to the best point to short.
    As always thanks for your comments.

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  2. You can only call the top once, maybe twice under special circumstances so all my credits are gone.

    I truly believe we have seen the top yesterday. There are quite a few reasons for it and thus far we are trading perfectly towards it.

    If today plays out the way I am anticipating I will put up the justification in an end of day post.

    But yes, if you were to ask me. The top has been made. Unfortunately too late for me to make this call here. Yeah I can keep on calling it an eventually will be right, that does not make me a strong analyst of the market. It just makes me a guesser that on the n-th attempt will be correct. I had my chances - no more.

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  3. trade wise. I am looking for a lower top to be made now on lower volume. If that occurs I will be adding shorts. Remember the 5 minute bars. Those will become important now on the next retracement up.

    Good risk reward ratio as well. Anticipating another move towards 920-921. 5 points of risk to carry into this trade.

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  4. here we go. Lets move it another 3-4 points.

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  5. Just got back. Thank you very much Chris, thats great.

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  6. i must confess, i didnt really fully appreciate what you meant in your comments about the feeling of capitulation when you first mentioned it as a sign of marking the top some weeks ago....but the way i feel right now with hesitation and fear of trading ...i think im beginning to kinda understand! ;)... weird feeling, cant quite explain it but i think you know what i mean.

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  7. I am fully loaded with shorts at 924.

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  8. Chris, do you see based on the market today so far any more upside? I did not get to read your blog earlier and I bought the short etfs when I saw a double top formation.

    It seems all news items are already out. Next week no major news.

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  9. I see a neg. divergence when it moved from 912 to 924. Do you see the same Chris?

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  10. by the way its looking now, more highs before we go lower. We had a triangle formation that we broke out of just to stop at morning top and been distributing between the open and the high of the day. Looking like it wants to make a run higher here, run stops and get some more buying going.

    While we still have time in the day, my bearish scenario will not work out and the most likly scenario is a close at the high of day.

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  11. would you the new high of the day as a better short entry or think it may continue the run into next week?.....i think it was sam who mentioned that there doesnt seem to be any major news out next week

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  12. I wouldn't say there's much less news next week than this week. Granted we don't have anything like the Stress Test, we do have International Trade @ 8:30 Tues, Retail Sales @8:30 Wed, PPI @ 8:30 Thurs, and CPI Friday.

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  13. dingdong, good point, thanks.

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  14. adam, I have added to my SDS position, however, and have no plans to sell/cover before the weekend.

    Chris, what are your thoughts about holding over the weekend?

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  15. Not quite sure. If we close at the high of the day I will add some. We have been having GAP after GAP here without full fills. Not sure the market can take more of that.

    And all the major news is out, so not much I can see that may be pushing the markets higher over the weekend. The big thing was the stress tests that got delayed over and over again and finally made it out yesterday.

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  16. thanks dingdong...i am of the same view.

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  17. I'm thinking Monday might be the best shot at a pullback if Retail, PPI, and CPI come out better than "expected", the rally might continue higher

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  18. Chris, how does it look? 930 held.

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  19. still holding the intra-day up trend line with a new high.

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  20. Adam, Dingdong, I am thinking along the same line. nO SENSE IN PICKING THE PERFECT TOP. I am too holding over the weekend.

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  21. right at daily trendline now. Got to be careful for a fake breakout again but we do have a chance here at some more selling into the close. Based on how the day has progressed probabilities still favor a close at the high of the day.

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  22. He was probabaly wrong for today here is Monday's call Just FYI not good news.
    http://forecastertrading.blogspot.com/2009/05/mondays-call-5-11-09.html

    the call is to switch long for Monday.

    Will be at 1.5x.

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  23. thanks chris and thanks for the link sam. this market just makes my head spin!

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  24. it only makes it spin if you are short. Being long has been the easiest trade ever, if your sentiment is bullish =)

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  25. I am short ES @ 926.25, stop 926 so I get my money back if it fails here.

    Probabilities still highest for close at the high of day.

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  26. I got out to minimize the loss and hope to get in at 940+ next week. I may be wrong but always can get in at higher price, if down trend is established. Chicken me. It seems that sometime it is good idea to not look at market for a week or more if you are on right trend.

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  27. yeah I have been considering taking next week off to clear my head. 100% cash all week =)

    I may just do that after all.

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  28. thats it for me for this week. Thanks everyone for all your contributions...hope you all have a good weekend (chris if youre away next week have a good break)

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  29. I say have a good break but we still need you.

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  30. I placed a limit orders for shorts based on 20 more points of SPX on monday.

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  31. FROM BLOG --I HAVE the SAME FEEINGS --930 COULD BE THE TOP. OF COURSE MONDAY WILL TELL THE STORY http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
    I’ve got my friend’s (uempel) permission to publish his thoughts bellow. I don’t quite understand the Gann method just I’m glad that he’s calling at least a 5% pullback. Again, forecast is trying to run before the market, but the actual trading should always let the market go first. It’s OK to bet a little on the forecast, but the most important of all is: NEVER EVER AVERAGE DOWN!

    This evening I looked at the SPX very closely. I cannot believe that this is not the top for the next week, fortnight, month. The pattern shows all indications of a top. I have read so much in the papers and in blogs about the 200-day-MA and 940, that these targets have to be ruled out: too many people/funds investors/funds ready to go short at 940/200-day-MA, so the target loses it’s validity. Following Gann 905 could also have been a high, but now it’s going to be 930...

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