Friday, November 27, 2009

Quick update

Well as it was my birthday yesterday I went out last night (right after I had closed most of my positions). Quite incredible moves even last night (yes I was glued to my iphone - quite sad).

Positions
Overall quite lucky for me to have profited from this move I have to admit. Technically it was a good trade at the top range for a 3rd test but never would I have expected such a move.

EURUSD held right at the previous trendline it broke out of, though it reversed all of the breakout and then some so expect any support to be short term. I had closed out all my EURUSD short yesterday with some amazing gains - will have to monitor this very closely as I really want to get back into a dollar bull position.

ES futures was closed out (just 1 contract). Gold short contract is still there and up nicely as well, this one will be kept a bit longer here. My puts will be 100% breakeven around 106.50-107 if I keep it as is including the hedge. Since this was quite a bad trade on my part I am looking to walk away from this soon so expect me to take profits (and losses) on those puts as well.

What to do next?
Well - I have to admit, I will probably just watch today. We only have a shortened session today and a lot can happen - a lot in either direction. We have a potential for quite a bit of madness today with BIG swings (20+ points in either direction).

Today will be an important test for the market in terms of liquidity. Is there any left or has this really been a HFT based market that will go nuts when real money comes in to get out.

12 comments:

  1. closed out all my spy puts at the open (still in the reds on combined position)

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  2. crazyness lol ... but we are loving it =)

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  3. 1092-1094 is key here ... if we breach that ... we have a high chance of recovering most of those losses. I will probably try a short between this range with a stop at 1095. Not yet decided.

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  4. had my limit order set at 1092.75 - just cancelled it. Not feeling the love and had an amazing 2 days =)

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  5. only open position is gold short at the moment via futures which has erased quite a lot of the gains I had already.

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  6. Happy Belated Chris. Hopefully you'll get some birthday luck!

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  7. thx =) ... considering taking another small chunk of EURUSD short. Above where I covered last night so will actually improve my avg price =)

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  8. and yeah I had a nice bday present. Considering how small of a position I had taken across the board (largest was EURUSD with 12 contracts there) I was up quite amazing for my bday.

    Nice present for sure. Glad I closed out at this point since this is quite a recovery here. As much as I want to believe in the bearish case - we have seen too much buying (not just short covering) yet again. Considering we are moving above the 1091 ES pivot (you remember how important that point was) we have a nice bullish chart setup here.

    Who knows ... the real answer will come on monday and we will know for sure what will transpire. The market needs to make a decision, you remember what I had mentioned, 14 days in a 25 point range - we broke out of this range just to reverse right back into it. Thats strength and probability wise should indicate that we have a breach on the upper side next (though I do not believe it .... but thats my belief and not the chart talking)

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  9. FYI - closed out my gold here as well.

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  10. 100% cash now and up for the month (first up month in a while hah).

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  11. An up month is a nice present for your bday. Happy belated! I never would of imagined it would be so violatile today! I'm still holding onto my longs for now. We'll see how Monday looks.

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  12. Market got Dubai excuse to go down on Monday.and if it does not and instead it reverses to upside, look out. 1198 is still in the catds.

    globex low 1167 may be the H&S correction.

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