Monday, November 16, 2009

Watching the upper range again

Ok for today its quite simple. As always with our 1% GAP scenario we have a good chance of a stepping day. We had been testing the 1098-1100 range a few times now so a clear break is likely. The question remains what upper ranges will provide enough resistance. Of course first our old ranges at 1107-1110. If those fail anything as we had described in the past as the topping range from 1116-1132. It will be difficult to figure out where it will stop and we can only determine that on a proper reversal.

Now this week is OPEX - we all know opex provides quite crazy ranges and moves so we have to be prepared for fakeouts on both the bearish and bullish side. Looking at this market now, it really seems the sky is the limit and there is nothing holding it back anymore. We are about to enter December, historically a bullish month.

The bottom of the Globex session is 1091, which also happened to be fridays close and represents the bullish/bearish short term line, a close below we should see more pull backs, a close above and we are on for 1130 upper ranges.

Amazon has breached my 133 range and my puts are down around 50%, probably more at the open. Will have to figure out how to get myself out of this one =). I am not too concerned about the SPY puts as we can micromanage this position a bit easier. Its always difficult to trade one out of a bad position, so lets see if I can manage to minimize those losses on both puts this week before expiration.

I will most likely not place any new trades today as I want to see the market play out at our key ranges before make a decision.


16 comments:

  1. ok the run for 1107 is on ... will initiate a short via futures up there.

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  2. come on ... one more big push is left in her

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  3. stop on the ES is 6 points (mid term as per rules on right hand side)

    Stop on put is mental as always.

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  4. also short for a scalp here as well.

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  5. the first negative tick of the day ... lets see if this is corrective to move higher or if we can get a move towards 1103 ES.

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  6. woah is all I can say ... even double woah for 1110 as the high of the day thus far. Lets see how it behaves around 1102-1103 if we even get there - because after all this is a dip that needs to be bought hah

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  7. I don't see what it was that Bernanke said that would've moved the market and currency like that... Seems just like the same'ol same'ol...? What's up?

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  8. closed the scalp to make back my loss from earlier =)

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  9. 1116 or 1121 ES two possible target for good short entry. stop at 1122

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  10. yeap that sounds like a good plan. At this point I am 100% committed via futures at 1106.25 (will micromanage this position) and around 75% with puts.

    Pretty much committed as much as I am willing to accept as a loss if we do go into the 1130 range. While the puts are underwater a move into 1130 will allow me to improve avg to above 1100 so I am still good till december expiration.

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  11. when I say 100% futures its a full position on the swing account (not day trade) so I can still scalp my way through the day =)

    equities still 0% so I got some powder left. And yes I know it already - I am committed a bit too much but hey - got to make some profits right =)

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  12. well we finally hit 1103 as expected. so lets see what the market will do from here. Of course we still have a nice up day today so tomorrow will tell the story ...

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  13. closed the other es short too at break even. Yes this was looking like quite a sell off here but too concerned for more upside since we closed above open price (by a fair margin).

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