Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Market has no patience

Its quite interesting seeing the overnight moves here - it seems the market has no patience at all. Generally when looking at corrective moves to absorb sellers and flatten out overbought conditions - the market will spend a minimum of 30% of the advance in terms of time going sideways, generally its even more. Look at the market here? barely even one day as a breather before wanting to continue.

Ok quite important today. USD yet again taking a beating which is helping the futures move higher as we speak. So the question we have to ask ourselves - what kind of move should we expect, how can we profit from it, and how do we protect positions (if you are short you are scared, if you are long you may want to look for a hedge or partial exit).

Initially I had given a high probability scenario to a failed 5th wave, meaning a marginal new high on SPX. I still believe this to be a high probability scenario - however a few things are going against it. One we have light volume and we have to deal with lots of stops just around the 1100 range - once those stops get hit, well you know what happens with all the short covering.

Its 4:15AM now, so we have a bit of time left before cash hours but I do not expect any strong reversals - remember our definition for a stepping day - 1% GAP will set the low within 15 minutes 2-3 points off the open and the first morning high within an hour of the low. This has worked like a charm the past few times so we have to watch this again today.

So what are my scenarios ... start with the lowest probability one.

1) no new high or high at open, sell off at cash hours open - well this to be honest should not be happening today. We have nothing going for this move, limited economic news, forex not indicating any type of reversal

2) failed 5th wave, marginal new high - this move should set the high before 10:00, most likely by around 9:45-9:55 at price levels close to 1107-1110

Now regardless of how high we may go, the close price in comparison to the open will become very important - if the close will be set below the open price. We have a high probability for a reversal - but lets not dream up a bear case here and go for our last, to be honest, most probable scenario.

3) stepping day with a close towards the high of the day on lower volume. For a move like this, we should be expecting a minimum move of 1110 most likely higher. Remember the chart from 2 days ago for our W5 targets.

Will post more updates before cash hours depending on pre-market action, but do not expect much of a change here.

20 comments:

  1. well nothing much has changed as anticipated. I am actually excited believe it or not because this here has the making of marking some type of short term top.

    Do you remembner the post from beginning of november? http://chaugner.blogspot.com/2009/11/so-what-can-we-take-from-today.html

    We have not been able to get rid of this NASTY divergence here - yes bearish divergences do not play out anymore (we all know that) but this is a bit suspicious - the last time in july we had this strong of a rally we took MACD and other indicators with us on the upside. Not this time.

    I am still underwater on my puts and will be even more so today - I am not sure if its due to smaller size that I am not freaking out (probably) but I will most likely be adding my last chunk of 50% above 1110. Lets see how it plays out.

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  2. I have been watching that MACD divergence forever. And I believe like you said, as long as the market doesn't take the MACD up with it like last time in July, the market will keep turning back down. I mean, look at the volume starting Nov 2nd. It's been pethetic.

    Today...hoping to see the double top hold.

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  3. yeap 100% agree. I have to admit, I started to ignore bearish divergences especially when looking at momentum, price and volume. But the MACD is a bit too important to ignore out of all the technial indicators. However, the problem with MACD divergences is that they can go on forever and unfortunately take prices to a level that are not able to be sustained from a short position perspective. And once prices are so high - if they end up taking MACD with them again after some sideways the divergence is gone while the market is 100 points higher and you are deep underwater.

    Its a tricky play ....

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  4. could we be going for scenario 1?

    Scenario 3 - almost out the window now
    Scenario 2 - could still be happening with an adjustment and making the high around 1:35-1:45 around the same price levels, but again due to the open lower probabilities now.

    Of course - we could still be in a wave 4, as mentioned maybe the market needs to learn a lesson in patience and we retrace down towards the w4 lower end targets to go higher into OPEX (which seems to be a common re-occurance for opex weeks).

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  5. 10300 on the DOW - get the popcorn ready ... would not be surprised to see another 150 points on the DOW here ...

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  6. looks like adjusted scenario 2 is in play right now. So we have a roadmap to position ourselves now. The only way this can get invalidated is a break of the low of the day. So watch that carefully - other then that higher prices are VERY likely.

    Watch the 1107-1110 very carefully. This is a HIGH probability top right there. Just a few points short of the ES targets BUT this is explained as a marginal new high since DOW reached (and breached) its upper targets. So some buying frenzy that will be held back by SPX and of course EURUSD that has failed to put in a new high.

    Exciting times =)

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  7. think we'll get that high?

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  8. yeap 99% certain we will reach those levels today.

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  9. and on that 1% chance that we will not and reverse lower from here. I already have some shorts (though quite underinvested) and do not mind getting to the party late =)

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  10. though keep in mind ... whether you are long or short. This is what I was talking about. Now comes to the time to either scale into shorts, remove hedges or hedge the longs or take partial profits.

    Please trade your own plan, but its just my opinion of what we are doing at the moment.

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  11. I was wrong on the price levels. While we were right on only making a marginal new high we missed the top ... doh. Take a look at VIX !!!!!!

    This is going to be a wild ride down.

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  12. remember the 5 bar 15 min setup (right hand side trade lessons). We are currently on bar 3 to distribute - meaning we have a high potential of 2 more 15 min down bars netting a total of around 8-10 spx points.

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  13. breakdown coming just on time (a tiny bit early)

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  14. added dec 110 puts here (yes at the low of the day)

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  15. do not expect the market to break down here ... just so you know but do expect to see lower prices in opex week.

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  16. I haven't touched my positions since Monday, but itching to do so now. Currently have a slight long bias.

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  17. if you are long since monday nice move. I do think we will trade around this range at least another day or so. We may have one last pop in it towards the targets we had outlined. Probabilities are increasing since we have not seen any red today.

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  18. covered again break even (scalp that is).

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  19. lol just a tad too early ... now that was not timed correctly haha ... quite funny.

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